XA Update Report | United Tractors Tbk. (UNTR) – Gold Restart Anchors Recovery

 

 

By Axell Ebenhaezer

12-August-2026

 

UNTR booked a 94% YoY decline in 2Q26 net income to IDR 313 billion (IDR 4.9 trillion in 2Q25), dragging 1H26 net profit to IDR 956 billion (-88% YoY) as consolidated revenue fell 13% YoY to IDR 29.7 trillion in the quarter and 15% YoY to IDR 58.3 trillion in the half. Stripping out IDR 3.3 trillion of non-recurring charges (the Supreme Energy Rantau Dedap geothermal impairment and the PPKH forest-area settlement at Stargate), core 1H26 earnings were IDR 4.3 trillion (-48% YoY). The Martabe suspension wiped gold sales volume (23k oz vs 125k oz) precisely as bullion peaked, while the 600mn ton national RKAB cut gutted heavy equipment performance (-28% YoY). Mining contracting was the sole grower (+4% YoY) on a weaker rupiah. We adjusted our FY26F net profit by 58% and TP to IDR 27,600 while upgrading to a BUY rating.

 

 

🔹RKAB relaxation should reset volumes from 2H26

 

• The FY26 coal RKAB was approved at roughly 600mn tons versus 817mn tons of actual FY25 output, in- line with the 600-650mn ton range we modelled in March.

 

 

• ESDM has since revised the national target upward to approximately 733mn tons following the July revision window, with 1H26 realization already at 367mn tons. This is the single most important swing factor for UNTR’s 2H26 and FY27 volumes, and it is not yet reflected in consensus numbers.

 

 

• Komatsu sales fell 27% YoY to 1,994 units in 1H26, with heavy mining machines down 55% YoY to 325 units as coal customers deferred fleet replacement.

 

 

• Mining absorbed 52% of units (65% in 1H25) while construction rose to 20% from 11%; a mix shift that lowers ASP but broadens the demand base. We forecast FY26F Komatsu volume of 3,750 units, with order intake recovering only from 4Q26 given delivery lead times.

 

 

• PAMA Group’s overburden removal fell 10% YoY to 481mn bcm as client coal production declined 3% YoY to 67mn tons, with stripping ratio easing to 7.2x from 7.7x. Lower stripping is margin-dilutive per ton, but the segment still grew revenue 4% YoY on USD strength. We forecast FY26F overburden of 981mn bcm before a recovery towards 1,050mn bcm in FY27F.

 

 

• Coal pricing has moved decisively in UNTR’s favor: HBA (6,322 kcal) is USD 124.44/ton in early August versus a FY25 average near USD 100.81/ton, with Newcastle at roughly USD 130/ton against USD 107.5/ton in FY25.

 

 

• Turangga Resources’ own coal volume of 6.0mn tons (-10% YoY) was heavily front-loaded (4.0mn tons in 1Q26 against just 2.0mn tons in 2Q26) which is why segment revenue fell 39% QoQ despite firmer prices.

 

 

🔹Martabe restart is the swing factor, not the gold price

 

• Gold sales collapsed 82% YoY to 23k oz in 1H26 after the January permit suspension that followed the November 2025 North Sumatra floods. Agincourt settled with an approximately IDR 200 billion payment and resumed operations in mid-May under tighter environmental oversight.

 

 

• The timing was maximally unfortunate. Gold peaked at USD 5,597/oz on in January and now trades near USD 4,330/oz, still 28% above year-ago levels. UNTR was effectively absent from the strongest bullion market on record. We cut our FY26F gold ASP assumption to USD 4,300/oz from USD 6,000/oz, and lower FY26F sales volume to 75k oz from 210–220k oz.

 

 

• We see 2H26 gold revenue near IDR 4.5 trillion against IDR 1.8 trillion in the whole of 1H26. a swing worth roughly IDR 2.8 trillion at the gross profit line on its own given Martabe’s low cash cost base.

 

 

• Stargate’s nickel ore sales fell 19% YoY to 886k wmt, reflecting the national nickel RKAB cut to roughly 210–260mn tons from 379mn tons realized in FY25.

 

 

• Offsetting this, UNTRs 20.13%-owned Nickel Industries secured a 2026 ore quota of 14.3mn wmt, up from 9.0mn wmt, which should lift associate income from FY27F.

 

 

• The February acquisition of Arafura Surya Alam is now consolidated and is the principal reason deferred exploration and development expenditure jumped to IDR 11.2 trillion from IDR 2.8 trillion.

 

 

• Gold remains the structural growth story, with group production potentially nearing 400k oz by FY28F, with a heavy investing cash flow year expected in FY26.

 

 

 

🔹BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR 27,600

 

 

• We expect FY26F revenue to fall by 7% to IDR 119.6 trillion and net profit by 58% to IDR 6.2 trillion (IDR 9.5 trillion excluding non-recurring items).

 

 

• As FY26 is distorted by both the Martabe outage and IDR 3.3 trillion of one-offs, we anchor valuation on FY27F while applying a target PE of 6.5x, below the 5-year mean of roughly 6.9x. This yields a TP of IDR 27,600.

 

 

• Risks: 1) further RKAB or DMO tightening 2) renewed permit action against Martabe or Stargate 3) gold price retracement

 

 

Download full report HERE.

 

 

 

 

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