Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks ended mixed on Monday after giving up early gains, as semiconductor stocks weakened following reports that China had successfully developed domestically produced deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines as a key step toward building a local chip supply chain. Earlier, markets gained on falling oil prices, which eased inflation concerns ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and major technology earnings reports.
The S&P 500 closed relatively unchanged at 7,414.11, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% to 24,932.08, while the Dow Jones gained 0.5% to 52,209.69.
Market sentiment remained pressured by Middle East tensions, concerns over massive AI spending by major technology companies, and rising trade tensions following new U.S. tariffs. Investors are focusing this week on earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, amid growing concerns over valuations, large AI capital expenditures, and companies’ ability to deliver sufficient returns
U.S.-listed ASML shares plunged 5.8%, followed by declines in other chip stocks, after reports said a China-backed company had begun mass-producing domestically developed DUV lithography machines.
Meanwhile, investors are also focusing on the Fed’s interest rate decision and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference on Wednesday. Although rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor the Fed’s inflation outlook and future monetary policy direction.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed higher on Monday as easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran boosted investor appetite for risk assets. Falling oil prices also supported market sentiment, although gains moderated ahead of a week filled with major U.S. technology earnings reports.
The STOXX 600 rose 0.3%, Germany’s DAX gained 1.2%, France’s CAC 40 increased 0.8%, Italy’s FTSE MIB advanced 0.5%, Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.8%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%.
The decline in oil prices from above USD100 per barrel eased concerns over energy supply disruptions and inflationary pressures in Europe. This helped reduce cost burdens for the manufacturing sector and provided room for companies to improve margins, which had previously been pressured by high borrowing costs and supply chain disruptions.
Investors are also preparing for several key events this week, including major central bank decisions and the release of Eurozone economic data, such as preliminary Q2 GDP figures, July economic sentiment and consumer confidence indexes, initial inflation data, and June unemployment figures.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian stocks extended gains on Monday as easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices boosted investor appetite for risk assets. Sentiment was also supported by expectations ahead of major central bank meetings and earnings reports from large U.S. technology companies this week. In Japan, the TOPIX rose 1.7% and the Nikkei 225 gained 0.8%.
In China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng increased 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 each gained 1.3%. Gains were driven by technology and battery stocks after CATL reported better-than-expected first-half earnings and announced a share buyback program. Meanwhile, memory chipmaker CXMT surged more than 500% on its trading debut, reflecting investor optimism over China’s effortsto build a more self-sufficient semiconductor industry.
In South Korea, the KOSPI reversed earlier losses to gain around 1%, supported by technology stocks. Naver shares jumped more than 10% after announcing a partnership with Nvidia, which will acquire USD1 billion worth of newly issued shares to support the development of an artificial intelligence (AI) data center.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices plunged sharply on Monday after the U.S. and Iran temporarily halted retaliatory strikes, easing market concerns over global oil supply disruptions. The decline erased much of the war risk premium that had previously pushed Brent prices above USD100 per barrel.
During U.S. afternoon trading, Brent crude for October delivery fell 6.5% to USD85.67 per barrel, while WTI crude for September delivery dropped 7.8% to USD82.32 per barrel. Previously, both benchmarks had surged around 20% over the past two weeks.
Oil prices briefly surpassed USD100 per barrel last week due to concerns that the Iran conflict could expand into the Red Sea and disrupt Middle Eastern oil exports. However, prices reversed lower after the U.S. government paused strikes against Iran following 13 consecutive nights of military operations.
Reports also stated that President Donald Trump delayed plans for further military escalation due to limited U.S. air defense system supplies. Meanwhile, Iranian officials said Tehran would halt retaliatory attacks as long as the U.S. maintained the pause in military operations, although both sides remain prepared to resume military action if negotiations fail.
• INDONESIA : The JCIclosed down 0.17% at 6,185.8 on Monday. IHSG remains in a sideways and volatile trend, as the market continues to adopt a wait-and-see stance regarding the appointment of a new Bank Indonesia Governor following Perry Warjiyo’s resignation.
Geopolitical and domestic pressures remain key factors influencing IHSG sentiment, potentially leading the index to retest its nearest support level at 6,000. For today’s trading session, if IHSG fails to hold above 6,200, the index remains vulnerable to a retracement toward the psychological level of 6,000.
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