XA Update Report | PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk. (NCKL) – Unlocked Value: Increased Capacity To Bolster Earnings
By Axell Ebenhaezer (Senior Research Analyst)
2-July-2026
NCKL reported a slight 4% YoY dip in revenue for 3M26 to IDR 6.81 trillion as ASP weakened. We also saw gross margins squeezed to 20.1% from 29.5% as COGS ballooned. However, the company’s overall bottom line saw a massive improvement of 64% YoY to IDR 2.71 trillion which was caused by higher income from JVs, spearheaded by an increased stake in ONC and higher FeNi production from KPS. We expect further KPS production increases to be the main performance driver for FY26.
🔹 Sales volume spikes, KPS expansion continues
• NCKL reported elevated sales volumes across all product segments in 3M26. Nickel ore sales increased by 67% YoY to 9.15 million wmt due to higher ore feed for KPS.
• KPS phase 1 and phase 2 production are also both reflected in the 3M26 books, with their combined annual capacity of 120k tons of causing overall NCKL FeNI sales volume to increase by 22% YoY to 53,666 tons.
• MHP sales volume also saw a slight improvement of 8% YoY to 32,613 tons as all HPAL smelters are online and operating at full capacity.
🔹 Government policies shaking the industry
• The government approved a 2026 RKAB of approximately 270 million wmt — down sharply from 375 million wmt in 2025, and short of an estimated ~345 million wmt of underlying industry demand.
• This was the primary catalyst behind a more than 30% rally in LME nickel prices between late December 2025 and April 2026, as the market priced in a genuine first-half supply squeeze. Prices traded at above USD 19,000/ton in early June as LME inventories continued drawing down and further supply disruptions emerged in the form of rotational high-grade NPI smelter maintenance in Weda Bay.
• Encouragingly, regulatory signaling has turned more constructive in recent weeks. Government confirmation that the controversial ‘gross split’ fiscal mechanism applies exclusively to oil & gas and not minerals has removed a source of uncertainty that had weighed on mining-sector sentiment.
• We are expecting a move toward a more flexible, price-responsive RKAB framework, under which production quotas could be increased when commodity prices are strong and held back when prices are weak, with scope for supplementary 2H26 quota allocations for select miners.
🔹 BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR 1,000
• We give NCKL a BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR 1,000. This implies a forward PE of 4.92x, in-line with the company’s 3-Yr PE SD-2. Price currently trades at a PE of 5.11x. Our conservative target reflects current market uncertainties surrounding RKAB quota and DSI function, as well as our general careful outlook on the equity market.
• Risk:1) Regulatory headwinds 2) Decelerating EV expansion 3) Weak Chinese economy
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