Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed higher on Thursday after initially trading lower, supported by reports that a final draft of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement had been reached with mediation from Pakistan. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices also declined following the news. Meanwhile, market reaction to NVIDIA’s earnings report remained limited as the company’s strong performance was offset by concerns over elevated valuations.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 7,446.05 points, the NASDAQ gained 0.1% to 26,293.10 points, and the Dow Jones advanced 0.3% to 50,285.66 points, marking its first record closing high since early February.
Iranian media reported that the final draft of a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran had been reached and was expected to be announced within hours. The agreement reportedly includes an immediate ceasefire, guarantees for freedom of navigation in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, and the start of further negotiations within a week.
However, sentiment had earlier been pressured after Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium not be shipped abroad, signaling a tougher stance by Iran in nuclear negotiations with the U.S.
Iran also expanded its control over the Strait of Hormuz by establishing a new maritime regulatory body called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. The authority expanded its supervision area around the Strait of Hormuz and now requires ships passing through to obtain special permits and coordination.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets mostly closed lower on Thursday after investors monitored reports that Iran was taking a hardline stance on uranium enrichment, potentially reducing the chances of reaching a peace agreement in the near term. The pan-European Stoxx 600 edged up 0.1%, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.3%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.4%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.1%.
Expectations that the ECB and other global central banks may raise interest rates again to curb energy-driven inflation also pushed Eurozone government bond yields higher and weighed on equities.
Fresh data also showed that Eurozone economic activity in May contracted at its deepest pace in more than 2.5 years, mainly due to rising living costs caused by the war.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets surged on Thursday after NVIDIA’s strong earnings results reignited investor appetite for technology stocks. Samsung Electronics shares also jumped after a tentative wage agreement with its labor union was reached, delaying a planned strike.
South Korea’s KOSPI soared 7.9% to 7,777.27 points, marking its strongest gain in several months. Samsung shares also climbed nearly 8% after the company and labor union reached a last-minute wage deal, canceling plans for an 18-day strike involving around 48,000 workers. The agreement eased concerns over disruptions to global memory chip supplies amid strong AI demand.
NVIDIA’s positive performance also lifted chip-related stocks across Asia. Investors viewed the results as a sign that demand for AI processors and data center infrastructure remains strong. Japan’s Nikkei rose 3.7%, while TOPIX gained 2.1%.
Chinese markets lagged behind the region as investors remained concerned about the property sector outlook and the slow pace of additional stimulus from Beijing. The CSI 300 index rose 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite traded flat.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose sharply in early Asian trading on Friday, rebounding from previous weakness as markets awaited further developments regarding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Positive comments from U.S. officials regarding negotiations with Iran had earlier caused oil prices to record fairly deep weekly losses. However, oil prices remained relatively elevated as the Strait of Hormuz was still closed and the U.S. and Iran remained divided over key issues, particularly Tehran’s nuclear program.
July WTI crude futures jumped 1.6% to USD94.34 per barrel at 19:06 ET (23:06 GMT), although they were still down around 6.6% on a weekly basis.
Meanwhile, seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries are expected to approve a moderate production increase for July during their June 7 meeting. Monthly production targets are expected to rise by around 188 thousand barrels per day, although supply from several countries remains disrupted due to the Iran war.
OPEC+ had previously maintained stable production in Q1 2026, but began raising output targets monthly starting in April. The size of the increases has also been reduced since the United Arab Emirates exited the group.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed lower again, falling -3.54% to 6,094.94. The index remained pressured by sell-offs in conglomerate stocks and foreign outflows amid market anticipation surrounding the May 2026 MSCI rebalancing, particularly in DSSA, BREN, and TPIA, which remained under pressure, while AMMN started to show some resistance.
Amid market pressure, several blue-chip stocks such as TLKM, viewed as defensive plays, still managed to strengthen amid concerns over Rupiah weakness against the USD. The market is also digesting the establishment of Danantara SDI, while showing concerns toward commoditybased stocks due to the lack of clear details regarding its mechanism.
If selling pressure continues, the IHSG could test the 6,000 area as its final psychological support, although it has attempted to close the gap around the 6,100 area, despite the possibility of a dead cat bounce (DCB). In the short term, market participants may monitor stocks that are still holding above support levels with solid fundamentals and attractive valuations.
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