XA Update Report | PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk. (BBNI) — 1Q26: Loan Growth Remains Strong & Outperformance, NIM Headwinds Emerging
By Leonardo Lijuwardi (Senior Analyst)
4-May-2026
BBNI recorded 1Q26 performance with net profit growing to IDR 5.66T (+5.2% YoY, +14.9% QoQ), equivalent to 27.4% of our FY26 estimate (NHKSI Est for FY26: IDR 20.66T). Net Interest Income recorded solid growth to IDR 11.02T (+12.1% YoY, -0.5% QoQ), as strong credit expansion successfully offset pressure on loan yields because of industry trend and lower rate environment. PPOP grew to IDR 9.32T (+12.2% YoY & -1.3% QoQ), supported by expansionary non-interest income to IDR 5.78T (+12.6% YoY). However, operating expenses rose to IDR 7.48T in 1Q26 (+12.4% YoY, -8.7%), driven by frontloaded personnel expenses (+15.3% YoY) and digitalization costs (+11.1% YoY). BBNI’s FY26 guidance remains unchanged with opex growth up to 7%. The provisioning side jumped +37.4% YoY to IDR 2.42T due to a low base effect in yearly basis (1Q25: IDR 1.76T & QoQ Basis IDR 1.42T, 4Q25: IDR 2.42T) Net Interest Margin (NIM) was compressed to 3.6% (1Q25: 3.9% | FY25: 3.9%) as blended loan yield declined to 6.9% (1Q26) from 7.4% in 1Q25 which reflecting a structural pressure that needs to be monitored going forward.
🔹 Lending Side: Solid Loan Growth– Additional Growth from Kopdes – Agrinas Program
• Resilient loan disbursement. BBNI recorded loan growth +20.1% YoY and +2.2% QoQ to IDR 919.3T in 1Q26 (1Q25: IDR 765.5T | 4Q25: IDR 899.5T), above management guidance. Notably, even after excluding special loans extended to Agrinas, organic loan growth is estimated to remain solid at approximately +13% YoY, reflecting the reopening of expansion capacity following the previous liquidity tightening phase. While overall credit growth was impressive, pressure on loan yields inline with a lower interest rate environment, which fell to 6.9% (1Q25: 7.4%), needs to be monitored as a risk to future NIM.
• The business banking segment remained the main driver of growth, supported by strong middle segment in 1Q26. Corporate loans growing +23.5% YoY and +1.5% QoQ to IDR 525.9T, with large part of that came from Agrinas loan program. By industry, infrastructure, natural resources, transport, warehouse and communication are the top contributor to BBNI’s corporate loan growth. The middle segment grew significantly +37.9% YoY and +8.1% QoQ to IDR 142.4T, both supporting more than 70% of BNI’s total loan portfolio.
• Consumer segment grew moderately at +9.1% YoY and +1.2% QoQ to IDR 158T, while the small segment grew slightly at to IDR 75.3T (+1.0% YoY and +0.2% QoQ) due to the decline in KUR (-17.4% YoY) which was partially offset by the growth of non-KUR SMEs (+14.0% YoY).
🔹 Funding Side: Stronger Liquidity in 1Q26 – Lower CASA Ratio due to Stronger Time Deposit Growth
• Third Party Funds still grew strong in quarterly basis. BBNI’s CASA grew solidly to IDR 731.6T (+26.6% YoY and +0.8% QoQ), driven by strong current account expansion to IDR 446.9T (+39.7% YoY and +1.7% QoQ), while savings account grew more moderately to IDR 284.7T (+10.4% YoY, -0.6% QoQ). Third party fund increased by +34.3% YoY and time deposits surged +52.6% YoY and +17.2% QoQ to IDR 369.0T , resulting CASA ratio declined to 66.5% (-4% YoY, -3.2% QoQ).
• Cost of deposits remained stable at 2.49% (-26 Bps YoY, +3 Bps QoQ). Digital ecosystem initiatives with Wondr and BNIdirect users each growing +28% YoY, ~90% of wholesale current account balances, and 77% of retail saving balances originating from mobile app users — demonstrating BNI’s growing ability to acquire and retain low-cost transactional funding despite the near-term CASA ratio compression.
🔹 BBNI Asset Quality: Asset Quality Remain Stable
• Stable NPL & LAR in quarterly basis. NPL improved to 1.9% (1Q25: 2.0%) and followed by LAR down to 8.65% (1Q25: 10.89%, 4Q25: 8.6%), with overall remained stable on QoQ basis. On the coverage side, LAR coverage remained stable at 45.9%, while the NPL coverage fell to 204.7% (-58.4% YoY, -0.8% QoQ). Credit cost also remains stable at 1.1% (1Q25: 0.9% | 4Q25: 1.5%).
🔹 FY26 Outlook: Guidance Unchanged, Keep An Eye With Macro Condition
• FY26 guidance remain unchanged. Management is still targeting loan growth of 8-10% (1Q26 result: +20.1%), NIM of 3.5-3.8% (1Q26 result: 3.6%) and credit cost of 1-1.2% (1Q26 result: 1.1%) for FY26. However, macroeconomic condition needs to be monitored that would possibly affecting performance in the next coming quarters. As of 1Q26, BBNI’s net profit has achieved 27.4% of our FY26 net profit estimate (NHKSI Estimate: IDR 20.66T). At this stage, we maintain our FY26 earnings forecast.
🔹 Recommendation “Buy” at Level IDR 4,400 / Share (Potential Upside +18.3%)
• NHKSI Research gives “Buy” recommendation for BBNI but with a lower target price at IDR 4,400 / share, implying Forward 26F P/BV of 0.9x (-1 STD of 3-year historical average). Potential catalysts include stronger operational recovery, sustained loan growth momentum, and a more supportive NIM trajectory than currently anticipated. Key downside risks include macroeconomic and political uncertainties, intensifying competition within the banking industry, and potential underperformance in loan growth or NIM relative to expectations.
Download Full Report HERE.
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
