Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks on Friday closed mixed but with an upward bias, supported by gains in Apple Inc. after earnings and falling oil prices following a new peace proposal from Iran. However, sentiment remained fragile after Donald Trump said he was not satisfied. Wall Street still kicked off May strongly, hitting fresh record highs.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,230.17 (record), the NASDAQ gained 0.9% to 25,114.44 (first time above 25,000), while the Dow Jones fell 0.3% to 49,499.02. On a weekly basis, S&P gained 0.9%, NASDAQ 1.1%, and Dow 0.5%, reflecting a strong rebound from March’s pressures.
Sentiment was supported by ceasefire developments, optimism of easing war tensions, a rally in chip stocks, and solid earnings. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index even recorded an 18-day winning streak in April.
Apple shares rose 3.3% on strong iPhone demand and solid services performance. The company guided for 14%–17% revenue growth with high margins. This was also the first report since the CEO transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets rose on Friday amid thin trading volumes due to multiple market holidays, following Wall Street’s record close. However, investors remained cautious over the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. Major markets such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and India were closed.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.6%, while TOPIX was flat. Gains were limited by geopolitical risks after reports that Donald Trump would receive a briefing on military options against Iran, raising escalation concerns.
From the data side, Tokyo inflation rose slightly in April. Headline CPI was 1.5% YoY (vs 1.4% in March), while core CPI was also 1.5%, easing from 1.7% and below the 1.8% expectation, indicating still-weak price pressure and fragile domestic demand
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices eased on Monday after Donald Trump said the U.S. would help free ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the absence of a U.S.–Iran peace deal kept prices above USD 100 per barrel.
Brent fell 0.59% to USD 107.53 per barrel, while WTI declined 0.82% to USD 101.10 per barrel, extending previous losses. Trump stated the U.S. would ensure safe passage for ships to maintain trade flows.
Despite this, oil prices remain elevated as Hormuz routes are not fully normal and negotiations are still ongoing without clear resolution. Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to increase output by 188 thousand barrels per day in June (third consecutive increase). However, the additional supply is unlikely to have a major impact as long as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt Gulf oil distribution.
• INDONESIA : The JCI corrected -2.03% into the red zone, falling below the psychological level of 7,000 to 6,956.8. Throughout April, selling pressure from big banks remained a major drag, reflecting concerns over Indonesia’s macroeconomic outlook trending toward contraction. Selling pressure from BREN and DSSA also continued to weigh on the index following their exclusion from LQ45, IDX30, and IDX80. However, after the HCL release, a positive takeaway is that IDX’s adoption aligns with MSCI standards.
Caution remains warranted regarding selling pressure from big banks. While valuations appear attractive, selling pressure is still significant amid macro contraction. Commodities remain attractive, particularly nickel prices approaching the psychological USD 20,000 level. Additionally, pullbacks in commodity stocks, especially base metals, may present buy-on-weakness opportunities given solid performance supported by rising ASP in line with commodity prices.
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