XA Initiation Report | PT Jasa Marga Tbk. (JSMR) – Still Driving On A Bumpy Road

 

 

By Ezaridho Ibnutama (Head of Research) & Graceline Melinda (Research Associate)

21-Apr-2026

 

 

We are initiating a rating HOLD for JSMR as fuel price hikes and planned tariff increases may suppress traffic and keep revenue under pressure into 2026, despite relatively resilient earnings.

 

 

🔹 Toll Road Industry : Rolling Out With Caution

 

• 76 BUJT In Operation, JSMR Owning A Third Of All Toll Roads. There are 76 toll roads owned by businesses (Badan Usaha Jalan Tol / BUJT) currently operating in Indonesia. 8 roads are directly owned by the State-Owned Enterprise PT Jasa Marga Tbk., and 18 roads are indirectly owned by JSMR through its regional subsidiaries. This totals JSMR’s holding 26 toll roads accounting to 34.2% in Indonesia. This has translated to JSMR also contributing 35.3% (1086.8 km) in all of Indonesia’s toll road length which is 3078.93 km.

 

 

• Three Methods In Acquiring Toll Roads. A toll road can be acquired in three ways : (1) BUJT receives tender by Menteri PUPR; (2) direct acquisition of the toll roads; and (3) unsolicited receiving of toll roads. Typically for toll road projects, 30% equity injections are from shareholders. The other 70% uses external financing. In greenfield projects, the BUJT will use credit facilities. In brownfield projects, credit facilities can be switched to capital market or refinancing.

 

 

 

🔹 Cement Industry : Slow Growth, Stable Foundations

 

•Stagnant Domestic Cement Production Capacity. According to the Ministry of Industry (MoI), the cement production capacity will have no change at 120.8 mn tons / year, but the domestic utilization will show improvement from 52% to 60% in the period of 2025E—2030E.

 

 

• Mild Domestic Growth Within A Mature Industry. MoI places the domestic demand expected to have a 3.01% CAGR 2025E—2030E. However, Modor Intelligence has a more optimistic view by placing a 4.88% CAGR 2026E—2030E boosted by resilient demand for residential housing construction taking up 54.9% of cement end-users; this may also be boosted by the government’s subsidized housing development programs targeting 3 million homes (2 million rural/coastal homes and 1 million urban units). The centra government has allocated IDR 117 trillion for the program

 

 

 

🔹 OUTLOOK FOR ASPHALT INDUSTRY : UNDERWEIGHT

 

• We are of the view that the asphalt industry will experience supply pressure from higher oil and gas prices due to the US-Iran-Israel conflict creating geopolitical uncertainties. As bitumen is a by-product of crude oil, the hike in raw material prices may deter purchasers. With central government funds becoming tighter and major local funds strapping their belts as well, the reparation and building of roads will be ranked lower in priority than current implementation of government programs such as the Free Meals, Subsidized Housing, and Energy Subsidies. We view the rise in bitumen will create cost inefficiencies in the construction of toll roads, and it may even lengthen the negative period of cash flow in which newly constructed or planned construction of toll roads.

 

 

 

 

🔹 FY25 Results Showing Some Potholes

 

• FY25 Performance Unveiling Crevices. FY25 top-line bumped down -5.9% YoY to IDR 29.89 tn due to stable Toll Road -0.08% YoY Traffic Volume Transaction in its mature toll road. Trickling down, FY25 Net Profit burgeoned a -14.2% YoY decline to IDR 3.66 tn.

 

 

• Adjusting Toll Tariffs But May Hinder Traffic Further After Fuel Price Hike. While 2026 has confirmed three toll tariff hikes in Solo-Ngawi (+24.98%); Ngawi-Kertosono (+4.08%); and Prof. Dr. Ir. Sedyatmo (+4.19%), the recent non-subsidized fuel hike has further anchored our revenue forecast to still be negative at IDR 29,635 bn.

 

 

 

🔹 Initiating with a HOLD Rating at a TP 3,450

 

• We are initiating JSMR with a HOLD Rating at a TP of 3,450 due to its unfavorable pressures from the non-subsidized fuel hikes disincentivizing transportation activities. We are of the opinion the 20 toll tariff hikes planned will be a further discouraging factor driving away traffic instead of offsetting the anticipated lower mobility. Therefore, we view a continued negative revenue growth trend may persist for 2026, while we view bottom-line to be sturdy. Currently, JSMR is trading at 6.51x P/E, slightly below its 3-Year Average of 6.76x. Our FY26 forecasts have its P/E shares stand at 6.18x.

 

 

 

Download full report HERE.

 

 

 

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id