Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street indexes closed mixed on Friday: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones declined, while the NASDAQ rose, driven by chip stocks. The gains were supported by strong March revenue from TSMC, which is set to release its full quarterly report this week.
March CPI data showed a sharp rise in inflation, although slightly below expectations, with energy as the main driver. This raised concerns that persistently high inflation will weigh on economic growth and push the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year.
President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning, after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement in ceasefire talks over the weekend. The blockade will target all maritime traffic to and from Iran starting at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT), according to U.S. Central Command.
U.S. and Iranian officials met in Pakistan but failed to reach an agreement. Key issues included Iran’s nuclear activities and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without fees. The failed negotiations and planned blockade indicate limited chances of near-term de-escalation, along with potential continued disruptions in global oil and gas markets.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets mostly rose on Friday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a willingness to engage in talks with Lebanon.
Sentiment was also supported by a Bloomberg report stating that Ukraine’s top negotiator sees progress toward a potential peace deal with Russia. European construction stocks rose on expectations of Ukraine reconstruction, with Buzzi, Holcim, and Heidelberg Materials gaining. In contrast, defense and aerospace stocks—which had benefited from expectations of increased military spending— declined, with Rheinmetall and Leonardo each falling more than 5%.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.2%, the UK’s FTSE 100 was flat, and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.2%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, supported by cautious optimism ahead of U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks, and were heading toward a strong weekly performance.
Chinese stocks were among the gainers despite mixed March inflation data. South Korea’s KOSPI was the best performer, rising 1.9% driven by technology stocks, even as markets showed little reaction to the central bank holding rates at 2.50%. On a weekly basis, the KOSPI surged nearly 10%, partly due to bargain buying after sharp losses in March.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.5% and was heading for around a 7% weekly gain. Meanwhile, the TOPIX was flat after producer inflation came in higher than expected, raising concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged sharply in early Asian trading on Monday, breaking above USD 100/barrel after President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed negotiations with Iran.
Brent futures rose 8% to USD 102.93/barrel. The U.S. military will begin blockading all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports starting at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT).The failed negotiations in Pakistan were driven by disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah. Vice President JD Vance left the talks early after 21 hours without results.
Ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions and a full Hormuz blockade could lead to sustained disruptions in global oil supply. The strait accounts for about 20% of global oil supply and had already been partially disrupted since the conflict began in late February.
Iran stated it has no plans to continue nuclear negotiations with the U.S., although reports indicate Middle Eastern countries are still attempting to mediate further talks
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher by +2.07% in the green zone at 7,458.5, successfully breaking the next resistance level in the 7,200–7,300 range. As long as it does not break below 7,300 decisively, volatility and consolidation are likely to persist within the 6,900–7,300 range. For now, in the context of Indonesia, it is wiser to take advantage of faster-paced scalping trading strategies, given global volatility and expectations of market shocks today alongside the end of the trading week, while also mitigating TACO risk.
For today’s session, the IHSG may retest and challenge the critical 7,200–7,300 area, as negative sentiment from the failed U.S.–Iran negotiations in Pakistan could trigger panic selling among market participants. Caution is advised amid this volatility.
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