Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, supported by solid labor market and services sector data, although sentiment had earlier been pressured by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%.
The Middle East conflict has entered its fifth day. The U.S. military stated that Iran’s air defenses have weakened, its navy has been largely disabled, and thousands of targets have been struck. Israel continues to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Iran has retaliated with missiles and drones aimed at Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases. NATO also intercepted an Iranian missile heading toward Turkish airspace for the first time.
Although there were earlier reports suggesting Iran might be open to peace talks, the claim was later denied. U.S. President Donald Trump said the operation in Iran could last around four to five weeks, while the U.S. Secretary of Defense stated that the operation has “just begun.”
On the data front, U.S. private payrolls jumped by 63K in February, exceeding expectations of 50K and marking the strongest increase since July last year. Market attention will now turn to further labor market indicators, including upcoming employment data and the nonfarm payrolls report.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks rebounded after earlier losses, as optimism grew that the Middle East conflict may ease in the near future. Germany’s DAX rose 1.8%, while France’s CAC 40 and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 each gained 0.8%. Eurozone services PMI edged up to 51.9, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%. However, these figures are unlikely to significantly influence European Central Bank policy, particularly after eurozone inflation rose unexpectedly.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks fell sharply, led by South Korea where the market dropped 11% amid rising concerns over the U.S.–Iran conflict and its potential inflationary impact. The decline was also driven by profit-taking following strong gains earlier in the year.
Chinese equities weakened after PMI data pointed to an uneven economic recovery. Major Chinese indices declined by more than 1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid nearly 3% due to losses in technology stocks. Official data showed continued contraction in both manufacturing and services activity, with domestic consumption remaining weak.
• OIL: Oil prices edged higher amid volatile trading. Brent crude rose to USD 81.68 per barrel, while WTI increased to USD 75.07 per barrel. Both benchmarks have surged this week, with Brent reaching its highest level since July 2024, driven by concerns over supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
• TANKER & SHIPPING CRISIS: The U.S.–Iran conflict widened after a U.S. strike hit an Iranian warship, worsening the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which has now lasted five days. The vital waterway—through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply passes—has effectively been disrupted.
Around 200 tanker and cargo ships remain stranded in Gulf waters, while hundreds more are unable to reach ports. The U.S. has pledged naval escorts and insurance support for energy shipments in an effort to contain soaring prices. Since the conflict began, at least eight vessels have reportedly been hit by attacks.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed lower, falling 4.57% to 7,577.1 and dropping below a key psychological level. The decline followed global market weakness as investors remained concerned about escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Although the market may have the potential to rebound today, investors are advised to implement hedging strategies and maintain exposure to commodity-related stocks, which are expected to remain a key trading theme this year amid rising prices of oil, gold, and nickel. Following the breakout in oil and gas prices, coal prices have also started to break out, potentially supporting coal-related stocks. Investors should remain cautious and maintain tight stop-loss and trailing stop strategies amid heightened volatility.
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