Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones gaining 314 points (+0.6%), the S&P 500 rising 35 points (+0.5%), and the Nasdaq adding 100 points (+0.4%). Gains came ahead of a key week marked by a Federal Reserve policy meeting and a wave of corporate earnings, amid still-elevated geopolitical tensions.
Market focus is centered on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting ending Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after three consecutive cuts. Analysts at ABN Amro see the Fed entering a relatively extended pause phase through June, supported by increasingly hawkish policy signals, solid economic growth, and a stabilizing unemployment rate.
Markets are also watching the dispute between U.S. President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which has raised concerns over the central bank’s independence. Powell previously disclosed that a criminal investigation had been opened against him, which he described as politically motivated. Powell is scheduled to step down in May, and Trump is expected to announce his replacement soon.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks started the week with limited moves on Monday, as investors remained cautious amid elevated geopolitical pressures, ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting and a heavy slate of corporate earnings. Germany’s DAX edged up 0.2% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.2%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets were mixed on Monday as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Fed meeting and awaited major technology earnings, while Japanese stocks came under pressure from a stronger yen. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell nearly 2% as the yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar amid speculation of currency market intervention by Japanese and U.S. authorities, weighing on exporters. Elsewhere, South Korea’s KOSPI eased nearly 1% after briefly touching record highs, while China’s Shanghai Composite was largely flat.
• COMMODITIES – OIL : Oil prices edged slightly lower on Monday, consolidating after strong gains late last week. Investors weighed the risk of a potential global supply glut against heightened geopolitical risks, while awaiting signals from the Fed’s policy meeting this week. Both benchmarks jumped more than 2% on Friday on rising geopolitical risk premiums. March Brent crude slipped 0.2% to USD 64.97 per barrel, while WTI fell 0.3% to USD 60.91 per barrel.
• COMMODITIES – GOLD :Global concerns remained elevated after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of imposing a 100% tariff on Canada if Ottawa proceeds with a trade deal with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada has no intention of pursuing a free trade deal with China and will continue to honor its commitments with the U.S. and Mexico. Against an uncertain geopolitical backdrop—including the U.S. previously rolling back tariff threats against Europe after gaining control over Greenland—gold prices surged to a fresh record above USD 5,100 per ounce, extending a sharp safe-haven rally.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed up 0.27% at 8,975.33, continuing its attempt to reclaim the key psychological resistance-support level at 9,000. The index still has room for a rebound, as it has consistently rejected and rebounded from its 20-day moving average, maintaining a broadly uptrend structure. Caution remains warranted amid ongoing volatility, with RSI indicators pointing to oversold conditions and a negative divergence that signals potential downside correction. Even so, overall momentum remains strong enough to support narrative-driven trading. For liquid stocks, gold-related commodity names may be favored as gold prints new all-time highs, along with other metal commodities. For smaller-cap, narrative-based trades, accumulation opportunities may be found in general insurance stocks and KBMI 1 banks, supported by capital increase catalysts.
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