XA Initiation Report | PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk. (SMDR) — Shifting Sails To International Waters As Domestic TEUs Volume Sunk
By Ezaridho Ibnutama (Head of Research) & Steven Willie (Associate)
04-Nov-2025
Revenue slumped -6% YoY and -3% QoQ to USD 192 million in 3Q25, reflecting a slower-paced economy and a volatile market environment marked by lower average revenue per TEU. The Shipping & Agency segment, SMDR’s largest contributor, declined to USD 155 million, down -6% YoY (vs. USD 166 million in 3Q24) and -7% QoQ (vs. USD 167 million in 2Q25). The Logistics & Ports segment also weakened -12% YoY to USD 38 million, though it posted an 11% QoQ increase, indicating partial recovery in logistics activities. Meanwhile, the Others segment remained resilient, growing +1% YoY and +5% QoQ.
🔹 3Q25 and 9M25 Financial Performance
• Leaky 3Q25 Revenue From Choppy Global Trade Conditions. SMDR’s 3Q25 revenue declined -6% YoY (-3% QoQ) to USD 192 mn. In the container shipping segment, the average revenue per TEU decreased -12.2% YoY (-4.2% QoQ) to USD 252/TEU because of increased global vessel supply as ordered ships during the pandemic era has been delivered and deployed. The decline in pricing was partially offset by a slight increase in volume to 503,000 TEUs, compared to 500,000 TEUs in 2Q25 and 486,000 TEUs in 3Q24. Despite the quarterly weakness, 9M25 revenue remained solid, increasing 8% YoY to USD 572 million, from USD 529 million in 9M24.
• Margins Stable QoQ, But Down Significantly YoY. SMDR maintained stable 3Q25 margins on a sequential basis, with gross margin (GPM) at 18%, operating margin (OPM) at 12%, and net margin (NPM) at 7%, consistent with 2Q25 levels. However, those margins declined sharply from the same period last year (3Q24) — 27% GPM, 20% OPM, and 9% NPM — due to lower freight rates and increased operational costs. Operational efficiency was also affected by the +19.6% YoY (+10.5% QoQ) rise to 671 employment days in 3Q25.
• 9M25 Domestic Contribution Declined, International Shipments Ploughing Forward. While Indonesia’s revenue contribution still dominated with 50.2%, Southeast Asia is catching up with 35.6% (vs 30.2% in 9M24) followed by Middle East and India at 13% (vs 11.3%). The biting off of contribution in Indonesia is caused by a marked an 8.61% YoY shrinkage in revenue from its agency, forwarding, and ports activities which is mainly based domestically
🔹 Sailing to New Seas: Strategic Developments
• Fleet Expansion with “MV Sinar Carita”. SMDR has added a new container vessel, MV Sinar Carita, with acapacity of 2,700 TEUs. The vessel is equipped with a shore power connection system, enabling improved fuel efficiency and compliance with port emission standards. As a Tier III vessel, Sinar Carita meets the latest international environmental compliance standards to operate efficiently in high-regulation markets such as Europe.
• Establishment of “Samudera Japan Kabushiki Kaisha” for Offshore Expansion. In Oct-2025, SMDR officially established Samudera Japan Kabushiki Kaisha, a subsidiary based in Tokyo, Japan, to expand its footprint in the offshore and shipping services sector. This strategic move enhances SMDR’s presence in Japan and East Asia, reinforcing its international logistics network and enabling the company to tap into new growth opportunities in the regional maritime and logistics markets.
🔹 Anticipating a Steady 4Q25 Despite Higher Vessel Supply
• Seasonal Strength Expected to Drive Revenue Recovery. The fourth quarter remains the strongest period for SMDR’s operations, typically contributing an average of 27% to annual revenue in the pas 2 years. We project SMDR top-line may reach +8.5% YoY (+17.2% QoQ) growth to USD 226 mn.
• Improved Global Sentiment on US–China Trade Agreement. Easing tensions and lowering US tariffs on Chinese products to 10%, the US-China Trade Agreement unlocks previously held-back shipments from both countries. Meanwhile, the loosening of trade tensions may also bring buoyancy to SMDR’s revenue moving forward as the ASEAN region has become more integrated into the Global Value-Added supply chain as a by-product of the trade war roused by US since Apr-2025.
• More Post-Covid Vessels, More Anchorage of Freight Rate. In April 2025, the global ship fleet grew 7.3% YoY to 6,033 vessels – making the total capacity achieve 10.1% YoY to 30.3 million TEU. This is a result of the expanded newbuiltship tonnage of over 50% in 2024 with the global orderbook raised 10.2% YoY.
🔹 BUY recommendation but lowering TP 400 (Prev. IDR 500)
• We are maintaining BUY but lowering our TP to IDR 400 (Prev. IDR 500) due to lower freight rates leaking revenue as a result of increased quantity of the global vessels from post-covid new ship orders and deliveries; seasonal TEU shipment volume rise in 4Q25 is anticipated to continue to be an offsetting factor for revenue, as the drip down of oil prices keeps margins afloat. SMDR is currently trading at 5.88x P/E which is slightly above its +1 standard deviation P/E of 5.77x. We also favor the company because its recent Japanese expansion into Eastern Asia positions their fleet to net shipment contracts migrating between the Pacific Ocean
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