Lower Revenue
FY19 revenue of IDR84.4 trillion (-0.2% YoY) equal to 97.5% of our 2019’s estimate of IDR86.3 trillion. The decline was attributable to Komatsu’s sales of only 2,926 units (-36.4% YoY) amid the sluggish coal industry. The coal industry continues to weaken in 2020, and 85.9% of UNTR’s revenue has exposure to coal; therefore, we estimate 2020F revenue of IDR82.2 trillion (-9.6% from the previous estimate).

Performance of Gold Mine Increases Significantly
The gold mining segment posted revenue of IDR7.9 trillion (+1,064% YoY) or around 9% of UNTR’s total revenue. UNTR will spend USD25 million of 2020’s capex for gold exploration as gold has the potential for increasing revenue contribution in the future. We estimate 2020F sales volume of 360 thousand ounces (-12.2% YoY) with ASP of USD1,380/ounce.

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