External sentiment, investors faced continued Hawkish or November +75Bps and December +50Bps FFR hikes, closing FY22E FFR to 4.25%-4.50% levels. Meanwhile, US FR30Y mortgage interest has reached 6.70% 3Q22 (Vs. 2.88% 3Q21); the highest level since the 2008 Subprime Mortgage crisis, as yield on UST10Y touched 4%. The Hawkish Fed was supported by a solid labor market, US Initial Jobless Claims fell 8% for the week. On the domestic side, the Government is targeting a 28% increase in tax revenue in 2023, in contrast to the potential normalization of prices for a number of commodities and the risk of an economic recession in some of Indonesia’s main trading partners.
Mandala Multifinance Bonds mature in December 2022. The Indonesian Securities Rating Agency or Pefindo has assigned idA ratings to two bonds owned by PT Mandala Multifinance Tbk. (MFIN) which will mature in the fourth quarter of 2022 or December 2022. The bonds that will mature consist of Shelf-Registered Bonds IV Phase IV/2021 Series A worth Rp300 billion and Shelf Registration Bonds III Phase IV/2019 Series B worth Rp10 billion which will mature on December 10, 2022 and December 20, 2022, respectively. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Ministry of Finance will not issue Euro Bonds. The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) stated that it will not issue debt securities in the form of foreign currencies, namely euro bonds this year, due to the economic turmoil that occurred in Europe. Apart from the energy crisis in Europe due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, EUR/USD weakened due to the increase in the Fed Funds Rate and the strengthening of the US dollar, which is a safe haven. The euro has weakened 11.79% since the start of the year. (Kontan)
Inflation beats economic growth. Bloomberg survey, Headline Inflation per September is projected to reach 6% YoY, or exceed 3Q22 GDP which is projected to only grow 5.5% according to BI’s version. High inflation, which has also exceeded the BI target of 4%, tends to make the Rupiah depreciate. On the other hand, high inflation has the opportunity to push BI 7DRRR to the level of 4.75%-5.00% FY22E. Apart from inflation, a number of other economic data will be released this week, such as: Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI, which is projected to continue to expand, and September’s Cadev, as the depreciation of the Rupiah approached the level of IDR15,300/USD last week.
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