Today’s Outlook:
US MARKET: Investors remain jittery over a potential rise in inflation and recession ahead of Trump’s April 2 start date for reciprocal tariffs. But sentiment appears uplifted on reports that the tariffs could be more narrow in scope and that sector-specific tariffs are expected to be delayed. In recent weeks, recession concerns were exacerbated by weakening consumer sentiment data. Stocks rapidly fell starting in late February with the S&P 500, at one point, closing in correction territory. Trump on Friday told reporters that there could potentially be “flexibility” for his reciprocal tariff plan.
FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY : The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose more than six basis points to 4.317%, and the 2-year Treasury yield was also nearly six basis points higher at 4.007%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday on reports President Donald Trump was backing off an all
-out trade war, raising hope the U.S. economy could keep its expansion going. The dollar jumped to multi-week highs against the euro and yen on Monday after data showed U.S. business activity picked up in March, after earlier rising against Japan’s currency on reports U.S. President Donald Trump will be flexible with upcoming tariffs. The dollar was last up 0.7% on the day against the Japanese currency at 150.35 yen. It earlier reached 150.39, the highest since March 3. The euro fell 0.09% to $1.0804 and slid as low as $1.079, its weakest since March 7. Sterling gained 0.09% to $1.2926 ahead of British finance minister Rachel Reeves’ spring budget update later this week. The Turkish lira slightly weakened to about 38 per dollar after a Turkish court on Sunday jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival, pending graft charges, which Imamoglu denies. The lira briefly lurched to a record low of 42 per dollar last week, when Turkey’s central bank said it had suspended one-week repo auctions and hiked its overnight lending rate to 46%, a move that economists say amounts to a tighter policy stance.
-The euro fell 0.09% to $1.0804 and slid as low as $1.079, its weakest since March 7. Sterling gained 0.09% to $1.2926 ahead of British finance minister Rachel Reeves’ spring budget update later this week.
-The dollar was last up 0.7% on the day against the Japanese currency at 150.35 yen. It earlier reached 150.39, the highest since March 3
ASIA MARKET: China’s Premier Li Qiang cautioned “rising instability” and called for countries to open up markets and enterprises.
COMMODITIES : Gold prices dropped on Monday as the dollar touched an over two-week high, while investors took stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s more cautious stance on tariffs against trading partners. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,010.33 an ounce. U.S. gold futures edged down 0.2% to $3,015.50. After Trump’s recent certainty about tariff, Investors now await U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data due on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia aimed at making progress towards a broad ceasefire in Ukraine, with Washington eyeing a separate Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal before securing a wider agreement. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.85%, to $72.77 a barrel by 1:15 p.m. ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 59 cents, or 0.86%, at $68.87. Oil prices gained 1% on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose 25% tariff on countries that buy oil, gas from Venezuela, and on the back of new U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports. Price gains were however capped by news that OPEC+′ will likely proceed with planned May oil output hike, and talks to end the war in Ukraine, which could increase supply of Russian crude to global markets.
Domestic News
Government Prepares Sukuk Auction Again on April 15, 2025
On Tuesday, April 15, 2025, the government will again hold an auction of State Sharia Securities (SBSN) or State Sukuk to meet part of the financing target in the 2025 State Budget. The SBSN that will be auctioned are the SPN-S series (State Treasury Bills – Sharia) and PBS (Project Based Sukuk). There are seven SBSN series that will be auctioned on April 15 with a settlement date two days later. The seven sukuk series are the SPNS13102025 series (reopening), SPNS12012026 series (new issuance), PBS003 (reopening), PBS030 (reopening), PBSG001 (reopening), PBS034 (reopening), and PBS038 series (reopening). Of the seven sukuk series auctioned, the Directorate General of Financing and Risk Management (DJPPR) of the Ministry of Finance set an indicative target of IDR 10 trillion and a maximum target of two times the indicative target. In this auction, the PBSG001 series was again offered, which is the Green Sukuk series offered through auction in the domestic primary market. The issuance of the Green Sukuk series through this auction complements the Green Sukuk issuance program which has been carried out 8 times in the global market since 2018 and 10 times in the domestic market through Green Sukuk Retail since 2019. The PBSG001 series can also be used to support the RPIM (Macroprudential Inclusive Financing Ratio) program for Conventional Commercial Banks, Islamic Commercial Banks, and Islamic Business Units. (Emiten News)
Corporate News
WIFI: Solusi Sinergi Digital Plans to Issue IDR 2.5 Trillion Bonds
Telecommunication infrastructure issuer, PT Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk (WIFI) plans to issue bonds worth IDR 2.5 trillion in 2025. Solusi Sinergi Digital President Director, Yune Marketatmo explained that the plan to issue bonds is part of WIFI’s financial restructuring in taking advantage of the increase in bond ratings. Initially, the bonds only received an idA- rating with a stable outlook. However, Pefindo raised the target to idA since March 6, 2025. “Our bond rating has increased, allowing us to issue bonds with lower interest rates,” Yune explained after the investor gathering event, Thursday (3/20). Yune explained that the IDR 2.5 trillion in funds will be used for network development, especially along the main routes of Java. This is in line with WIFI’s target of increasing home passed. By the end of this year, WIFI is targeting to serve 5 million customers. The number of WIFI Fiber to The Home (FTTH) home passed has reached 200,000 households. “With a high take-up rate in the range of 80%-90% per customer, we are optimistic that we can reach 5 million customers by the end of 2025,” he said. Just to remind you, WIFI through its subsidiary PT Integrasi Jaringan (IJE) or known as Weave has issued Bonds I in 2024 worth IDR 600 billion. (Emiten News)
Recommendation
US10YT naik ke level menjadi 4,276%. Imbal hasil obligasi acuan Amerika saat ini sudah mulai relatif sideways dikarenakan adanya peluang Trump melakukan relaksasi dan fleksibilitas terhadap kebijakan tarrif dan perang dagangnya terhadap negara-negara besar dunia meskipun para ekonom menunjukkan kemungkinan besar negara tersebut akan memasuki resesi di akhir tahun 2025.
ID10YT breakout uptrend channel, menguji resistance 7.2%. Sebagian besar investor khawatir akan implikasi dari peluncuran Sovereign Wealth Fund Danantara dan adanya kondisi sosial politik yang cukup bergejolak.
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