US stock indexes plunged above 1%, as the 2-year Treasury yield soared to its highest level since 2007, entering the upper 5% level as Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks ramped up bets on a return to aggressive rate hikes at the central bank’s March meeting; along with strong growth in February economic data. About 70% of traders now expect the Fed to deliver a 50 bps rate hike at its March 21-22 Meeting, a significant upward from 31% on Monday before Powell’s statement, as reported by CME Group Fedwatch. Powell also said that the Fed would not consider changing its 2% inflation target, and the job market does not suggest an economic downturn is close. Meanwhile, from Asia, China’s economic data release did not receive a positive reception from the market as their YoY (Feb.) Export & Import fell both from estimates and January, although managed to gain the largest surplus for 5 years at USD 116.88 billion (much higher than forecast & previous). The foreign exchange reserves data (Feb.) recorded an increase to USD 140.3 billion from USD 139. 4 billion (Jan.); however, this did not stop the Rupiah from weakening to IDR15400/USD (source: RTI Business).
Pegadaian Prepares Funds to Pay Off Maturing Bonds PT Pegadaian has prepared funds to pay off several principal bonds that will mature in May 2023. The funds prepared are worth IDR 2.33 trillion. There are 4 securities owned by Pegadaian that will mature in May, including two in the form of bonds worth IDR 2.5 trillion and two others in the form of mudharabah sukuk worth IDR 720 billion. Pegadaian Treasury Division Head Zulfian Adam revealed that his party will pay off the principal of these securities from bank loans and Islamic banking. (Kontan)
Foreign Investors Buy IDR 93.58 T of Indonesian Bonds In the first two months of 2023, foreign investors bought up government securities (SBN) in the Indonesian capital market. In total, the inflow of funds from foreign investors in SBN reached IDR 93.58 trillion. Based on data from the Financial Services Authority (OJK), in January 2023 foreign investors made a net purchase of IDR 49.70 trillion. While in February 2023, the net value of incoming foreign capital reached IDR 43.88 trillion (as of February 24, 2023). This phenomenon is contrary to what has happened in the last two years. Where foreign investors did a lot of net selling, or withdrawing their funds from SBN. In 2022, foreign funds were recorded to have left as much as IDR 129.16 trillion. Meanwhile, in 2021, the withdrawal of foreign funds from SBN was worth IDR 82.57 trillion. (CNBC Indonesia)
US10YT is still undergoing an orderly Uptrend above MA10 & MA20 Support. Average Up after Resistance from the previous High yield at 4.091%; it is expected that US10YT will continue to strengthen towards yield 4.243-4.338%. ADVISE: let your profit run, set your Trailing Stop; Average Up accordingly.
ID10YT uptrend is still intact towards the 7.19-7.20 TARGET. ADVISE: Hold, let your profit run; set your Trailing Stop ( i.e. if ID10YT yield closes lower than the previous day’s Low, then profit-taking shall be done).
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