Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the close of the NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 269 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 edged down 0.02% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.4%. The S&P 500 ended the session largely flat in directionless trading, as the rally in chip stocks began to lose momentum. However, gains in cyclical sectors—particularly consumer and energy stocks— helped limit broader market losses ahead of the release of the closely watched U.S. monthly jobs report
Technology stocks took a breather on Thursday, with memory chip stocks extending their decline after a very strong start to the year. Shares of Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate, and Micron fell sharply, weighing on the semiconductor sector, which was already under pressure from a roughly 2% drop in Nvidia shares. Meanwhile, consumer stocks helped offset market weakness, with Amazon and Costco posting gains. Costco continued its rally after reporting a jump in December sales compared with the same period last year.
On the economic front, the number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, suggesting layoffs remained relatively low at the end of 2025, although labor demand stayed sluggish. Initial claims increased by 8,000 to 208,000 for the week ended December 27. Meanwhile, U.S. labor productivity grew at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter—the fastest pace in two years and the strongest since the third quarter of 2023—following an upward revision of second-quarter growth to 4.1%. Market attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to provide a clearer picture of labor market conditions and wage growth.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks were mixed on Thursday, as heightened geopolitical concerns weighed on market sentiment. Pressure followed U.S. threats to take control of Greenland, coming on the heels of the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Germany’s DAX closed flat, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.1%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 hovered slightly below the flatline.
European investors remained on high alert after U.S. President Donald Trump raised the possibility of using military force to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. U.S. military action in Venezuela over the weekend—which resulted in the capture and transfer of President Nicolas Maduro to the United States—rekindled concerns in Europe that Greenland could be the next target.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that he will meet with Danish officials next week. Rubio emphasized that any U.S. president retains the option to respond to national security threats, including through military means, although diplomacy remains the preferred approach. Both the U.S. and Denmark are NATO members, and a U.S. military move to seize Greenland could potentially mark the end of the alliance.
• ASIAN MARKET :Most Asian stock markets declined on Thursday, tracking a weaker close on Wall Street overnight. In contrast, South Korean shares hit fresh record highs, supported by strong earnings forecasts from Samsung Electronics that boosted market sentiment.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1%, while the broader TOPIX index slipped 0.4%, extending losses after reaching record highs earlier in the week as investors took profits and reacted to Wall Street’s subdued finish. Mainland Chinese markets were muted, with the CSI 300 index down 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite trading largely flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 1.4%.
By contrast, South Korea extended its bullish trend. The benchmark KOSPI jumped more than 1% to a new all-time high of 4,622.32, driven by strong demand for semiconductor stocks. Shares of Samsung Electronics surged after the company forecast record fourth-quarter operating profit amid booming demand for memory chips used in artificial intelligence applications. Rival SK Hynix also climbed to record levels, supported by optimism surrounding its high-bandwidth memory business.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose on Thursday, rebounding after two consecutive losing sessions, supported by rising geopolitical uncertainty and a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. oil inventories.
March Brent futures gained 0.2% to USD 62.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 4.3% to USD 58.39 per barrel. Both benchmarks had previously fallen more than 1% for two straight sessions.
Oil market sentiment improved after U.S. government data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week ended January 2—well above expectations for a 1.2 million barrel draw and marking the largest decline since late October.
However, market focus remains on Venezuela. A *Wall Street Journal* report said U.S. President Donald Trump is planning initiatives to control Venezuela’s oil industry over the coming years as part of an effort to achieve his USD 50-per-barrel oil price target. The U.S. government is reportedly considering taking control of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PdVSA. Trump also said Venezuela will hand over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to Washington, worth up to USD 3 billion, just days after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro
• INDONESIA : Indonesia’s benchmark index, the IHSG, closed lower by 0.22% at 8,925.47, failing to test or break the key psychological resistance level of 9,000. We observe that in the early weeks of trading, gains in the IHSG have been supported by a range of attractive narrative catalysts for 2026, including capital increases for KBMI 1 banks (such as BNBA), higher minimum capital requirements for insurers, as well as oil-related stocks and LNG shipping tankers.
From a conglomerate perspective, stocks within groups that saw limited price flows throughout 2025—such as those linked to seasonal catalysts at Panin Group—are starting to look more attractive, especially as other conglomerates have already experienced significant rallies. For investors holding portfolios in nickel-related stocks, KBMI 1 banks, and general insurance, caution remains warranted. Maintaining trailing stops is advised given elevated volatility, particularly as today marks the final trading day of the week.
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