Today’s Outlook:
• US stock indexes had a volatile session on Friday but eventually closed slightly higher, although these small gains did not stop the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite from starting the year with their worst weekly performance in months. Friday’s trading session (05/01/24) reflected investors absorbing the latest macroeconomic data that could potentially disrupt projections of when interest rate cuts could begin. Initially, strong Nonfarm Payroll employment data (actual: 216k versus 170k forecast) dampened expectations of a faster pivot. However, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) later showed activity in the services sector fell in December (actual: 50.6 versus 52.7 previous), suggesting a weaker economy. Between this good news & bad news, market participants preferred to bet on a faster pivot projection, therefore the market remained on an upward swing and in the end all three benchmark indices managed to achieve the first positive session of 2024 for the S&P500 and Nasdaq. Traders see a 66.4% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 bps in March, according to CME Group’s FedWatch. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, ended the week at 4.05%.
• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: Japan reported au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Dec) still growing in expansionary territory at 51.5, up from 50.8 in the previous month. The UK also reported Halifax House Price Index (Dec) which grew 1.7% yoy, up from minus 0.8% in Nov. Unfortunately, Germany recorded weak Nov Retail Sales at a reading of 02.5%, down from 1.1% in the previous month. UK Construction PMI is still struggling in contraction territory. Eurozone released preliminary estimates of Inflation (Dec) at 2.9% yoy, and Core CPI at 3.4% yoy. Hopefully, both indexes will come in slightly lower than expected at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively.
• JCI has reached the TARGET of the bullish reversal pattern around 7368 and even hit a record high on Friday’s trading (05/01/24) at 7401. Uptrend is undoubtedly very strong as it consistently moves above MA10, although RSI negative divergence is also looming. The healthy consolidation that occurred can be tolerated until the Support limit of 7270-7300, and even if it occurs it has not damaged the ongoing uptrend. NHKSI RESEARCH suggests to start setting your Trailing Stop, in the middle of the let your profit run action.
Company News
• GIAA: Partial Repayment of Notes and Global Sukuk
• WIIM: Treasury Shares Sold
• MTDL: Targeting 10% Profit Growth This Year
Domestic & Global News
• Rulers Warn on Impact of Alcohol Beverage Excise Increase
• Wages Rise 4%, US Hires Massive Workforce by End of 2023
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