Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET :The S&P 500 closed lower after retreating from fresh alltime intraday highs on Wednesday, as gains in Alphabet were insufficient to offset losses in chip stocks amid investor profit-taking following strong gains a day earlier. The Dow Jones fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after briefly touching an intraday record of 6,965.69, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%. Chip stocks—excluding Nvidia—posted notable declines, with Western Digital among the biggest laggards. Market attention shifted to U.S. economic data. Private-sector job growth in December came in below expectations, although it marked a reversal from the sharp decline seen the previous month. ADP data showed private payrolls rose by 41,000, below expectations of 49,000 and compared with a decline of 29,000 in November. Job openings fell more than expected to 7.146 million versus expectations of 7.61 million, reinforcing signals of weakening labor demand. Labor market conditions remain a key factor in Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with the Fed having cut rates several times throughout 2025.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks traded flat on Wednesday after a string of record closes, as investors assessed geopolitical developments and prepared for upcoming U.S. economic data releases. The pan-European Stoxx 600 edged slightly lower, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 was flat, and the UK’s FTSE 100 declined 0.7%. Among individual stocks, Nestle extended losses from the previous session after the company announced a recall of some infant nutrition products due to potential contamination.
• ASIAN MARKET :Asian stock markets were mixed on Wednesday, with most major indices edging lower after strong gains earlier in the week, while South Korean shares surged to fresh record highs, supported by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence. Geopolitical tensions added to cautious sentiment after China announced immediate export controls on goods to Japan that could have military applications. In South Korea, the benchmark KOSPI jumped more than 1% to a new record high of 4,611.72, extending its rally on the back of strong year-end gains. Semiconductor heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rose between 3% and 5%, as investors focused on improving earnings prospects in the chip sector. Elsewhere in Asia, markets struggled to sustain momentum following recent rallies. Japan’s TOPIX fell 0.5% from record highs, while the Nikkei 225 also slipped 0.5% from near-record levels amid profit-taking after a strong start to the year. Hong Kong equities declined, with the Hang Seng Index retreating 1% after sharp technology-led gains in recent sessions. In mainland China, the CSI 300 traded flat, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.3%.
• COMMODITIES :Brent crude prices weakened sharply in volatile trading on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Venezuela would supply tens of millions of barrels of oil to Washington. Oil prices had already been under pressure earlier in the week after U.S. actions in Venezuela fueled speculation of a broad lifting of sanctions on the country’s oil industry, potentially releasing tens of millions of barrels of supply back into the market. Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty prompting some risk premium, oil prices remained under pressure amid growing concerns over a supply glut in 2026. Oil prices recorded their largest annual decline in five years in 2025.Brent futures fell 0.5% to USD 60.39 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude dropped 1.4% to USD 56.36 per barrel. Trump said in a social media post that Venezuela would hand over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the United States. “This oil will be sold at market prices, and the proceeds will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used for the benefit of the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump said
• INDONESIA :The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed higher, extending its rally into record territory with a gain of 0.13% to 8,944.81. The next resistance level is the psychological 9,000 mark. Gains in the index were supported by multiple attractive narrative catalysts for 2026, including capital increases for KBMI 1 banks (such as BNBA), higher core capital requirements for insurance companies, and strength in oil-related stocks. From a conglomerate perspective, shares of conglomerate groups that saw limited inflows throughout 2025—such as those linked to Panin Group’s seasonal catalysts—are starting to look attractive, especially as other conglomerates have already experienced significant rallies. For investors with exposure to nickel, KBMI 1 banks, and general insurance stocks, it is advisable to remain cautious and employ trailing stop strategies due to elevated volatility.
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