Today’s Outlook:
• The Dow closed higher Friday (1/12/23), as Treasury yields were pressured by growing expectations for sooner rate cuts even as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned against “premature” bets on rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the NASDAQ Composite added 0.6%. The S&P 500 ended the day at 4,594.63, a closing high for the year, following a jump in November. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.60%. For the week, the index was on track for a gain of 0.9% marking its fifth consecutive week of gains, which is its longest winning streak since the five week stretch ended Nov. 5, 2021.
• Treasury yields fell after Powell said the risks of hiking interest rates too much and slowing the economy more than necessary have become “more balanced” with the risks of not hiking enough to control inflation. In Treasuries, the benchmark 10-year notes were down 13.7 basis points to 4.213%, from 4.35% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond was last down 11.6 basis points to yield 4.3952% while the 2-year note was last was down 16 basis points to yield 4.5549%, from 4.715%.
• Earlier on Friday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. It was the 13th consecutive month the PMI stayed below 50, indicating a contraction in manufacturing and the longest such stretch since the period from August 2000 to January 2002.
• The dollar index fell 0.232%, with the euro down 0.06% to $1.0879. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.93% versus the greenback at 146.84 per dollar.
• Oil prices settled more than 2% lower for a second consecutive day, with the market unconvinced the latest round of OPEC+ production cuts will be enough to lift prices from a recent slump. U.S. crude settled down 2.49% at $74.07 per barrel and Brent ended at $78.88, down 2.45% on the day. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to a voluntary output reduction of 900,000 barrels per day in addition to extending 1.3 million barrels per day in production cuts already in place.
• Gold surged to a record high of $2,075.09, also lifted by expectations the Fed was done with policy tightening and could cut rates next year. Spot gold added 1.7% to $2,071.21 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 1.62% to $2,071.10 an ounce.
• JCI looked giddy around the 7100 Resistance, forming a Hanging Man-like candle following the earlier Shooting Star; further proving that the selling pressure in the 7100 area is indeed considerable. Foreign buying interest started picking up, amassing IDR 543.26 billion over the past week, totaling YTD position at IDR 2.84 trillion. NHKSI RESEARCH thinks that JCI’s orderly Uptrend above MA10 will not be disrupted even if it has to pull back momentarily to the nearest Support/ MA10 around the psychological level of 7000. Our best Advise: utilize the weakening momentum as an opportunity to BUY ON WEAKNESS.

Company News
• NCKL : Net Profit Up 23.8%
• PPRO : Partnering with Voltron to Provide Charging Station
• ITMG : Capex Absorbed USD26.7 Million as of 3Q23

Domestic & Global News
• Indonesia Officially Sues European Union to WTO over Stainless Steel
• Fed Official Hints Interest Rate Hikes May Be Over

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