• Global stocks market and Wall Street rallied on Monday (30/10/23), kicking off what promises to be a hectic trading week that inlcudes Q3 earnings, economic data, and the FOMC Meeting. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed up more than 1%, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the gain of 1.58% on the back of Tech sector’s megacap stocks, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. 251 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q3 results. Of those, 78% have beaten Wall Street estimates, according to LSEG. Analysts now expect, on aggregate, annual third quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 4.3%, a marked improvement over the 1.6% year-on-year growth seen at the beginning of October. On Tuesday, the Fed is expected to convene for a two-day monetary policy meeting, which is expected to culminate in a decision to let the Fed funds target rate stand at 5.25%-5.50%. Investors will focus more on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement on the future direction of monetary policy.
• Prior to that, however, the Bank of Japan will begin this week in determining interest rates. As quoted from the Nikkei report, the recent upward trend in global interest rates has pressured the BOJ, that they consider adjusting its yield curve control policy to allow the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise above 1%, pushed the yen to JPY 148.81/USD (its strongest level since Oct. 17). From continental Europe, the Bank of England will complete the ” triad” of central banks in this week’s interest rate decision which is originally scheduled for Thursday. The Dollar Index fell 0.469%, while the Euro crept up 0.51% at USD1.0618/EUR.
• The equity market euphoria was not reflected in the COMMODITY markets, as Oil prices plunged nearly 4% on Monday, with market participants shifting attention from the MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Ahead of the FOMC Meeting, however, traders were also awaiting key PMI data from China, which would provide more insight into the health of business activity in the world’s largest oil importer. China’s economy seems to be stabilizing in recent months; the country’s aviation supervisor said that they will increase domestic flight traffic by 34% above pre-pandemic levels: a positive catalyst for oil demand, even though air travel fuel usage is only a small portion of China’s overall fuel consumption.
• EUROPEAN MARKETS: Germany released its GDP for Q3/2023 where Europe’s largest economy slipped back into recession with growth of minus 0.3% yoy (-0.1% qoq) although the economic slowdown was better than the -0.7% yoy forecast (quarterly forecast: -0.3% qoq). Germany also released its October Inflation forecast which seems to have managed to ease to 3.8% yoy (lower than both the 4.0% forecast and the previous month’s 4.5%). Later this afternoon, another economic data from Germany will be awaited, namely Retail Sales (Sept.) which is expected to strengthen further. Speaking of Inflation, the Eurozone will also prelude the October CPI forecast, where the region expects to see the Inflation rate cooling further to 3.2% yoy, from 4.3% in September. As for the 3Q23 Eurozone GDP forecast, it narrowed to 0.2% yoy from 0.5% in Q2/2023.
• Yesterday’s JCI Closing position has not moved from the mid-term Support area of 6745-6735, but the upbeat regional market sentiment and the presence of the leading indicator RSI positive divergence technically, raises hopes that JCI is capable of experiencing a technical rebound today; in particular it will try the nearest Resistance which is MA10 in the range of 6815, before moving higher towards MA50 around 6850-6860. NHKSI RESEARCH advises investors/traders to add speculative long positions while waiting for more Average Ups once JCI proves to be firmly above the Resistance area.
• SIDO : Net Profit Has Declined
• MTEL : Recorded IDR1.43 Trillion Profit until 3Q23
• PWON: Record IDR4.56 T in Revenue up to 3Q23
Domestic & Global News
• Indonesia Encourages Brazil to Invest in the Sugar Factory and Sugarcane Plantations
• Xi Jinping Calls State Leaders and Chinese Bank Chiefs, What to Discuss?
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