Today’s Outlook:

• Most global stock indexes rose in Tuesday’s trading, with the NASDAQ (re)setting a record closing high ahead of this week’s key earnings reports, while the US Treasury yield hit a 3-month high on the back of sentiment the US ELECTION is just a week away. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 154.52 points, or 0.36%, to  42,233.05, the S&P 500 appreciated 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.78%. The MSCI global stock index edged up, though almost flat at 0.02%, to 848.08. The STOXX 600 index fell 0.57%.

• MARKET SENTIMENT:

– The US Labor Department’s JOLTS JOB OPENINGS survey showed job openings stood at 7.44 million in September, compared with a forecast of 8 million, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This data will be followed by ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (Oct) later tonight at around 1915WIB, which is the set of labor data that precedes the highly anticipated NONFARM PAYROLL (Oct) on Friday. On the one hand, CB Consumer Confidence stated that consumer optimism increased in Oct. This report to the highest level since last February. Later tonight there are a number of other important data: preliminary estimates of Q3 GDP, Core PCE Prices (Q3), and Pending Home Sales (Sept), and from the Energy sector is the official US government data on US Crude Oil Inventories.

– 3RD QUARTER PERFORMANCE REPORT: After the closing bell, Alphabet shares rose more than 5% as the Google parent company beat third-quarter revenue expectations and recorded an AI-driven surge in its cloud business. Meta Platforms and Microsoft are expected to report their results on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon.com on Thursday. As noted, the stock market has experienced strong gains this year, partly due to optimism catalysts over Tech companies and artificial  intelligence (AI).

– The US election on November 5 has entered its final stretch, with polls still too tight to determine a winner in the race between Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, the Democratic candidate, and former Republican President DONALD TRUMP. Market analysts consider it natural for high volatility in the market to increase this week with a myriad of focuses for market participants.

• FIXED INCOME & CURRENCY: The benchmark 10-year US TREASURY YIELD hit an almost 4-month high as investors were somewhat reluctant to buy the bond ahead of next week’s US Election; but then the yield fell after a strong auction of 7-year bonds. As such, the latest 10-year US Treasury yield is down 0.6 basis points at 4.272%.

– JAPANESE YEN found its footing after Monday’s drop to a 3-month low as the coalition government’s crushing defeat in Japan’s weekend election clouded Japan’s fiscal and monetary policy outlook. The US DOLLAR was last up 0.12% on the day at 153.47 Yen. BANK OF JAPAN will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, and consensus expects interest rates to remain unchanged. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner Komeito lost their majority in parliament, potentially meaning greater fiscal spending and complicating the BOJ’s push to normalize interest rates. The leader of the opposition Democratic Party for the People said on Tuesday that the central bank should avoid making major changes in its ultra-loose monetary policy as real wage growth remains stalled.

– The DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, rose 0.01% to 104.27, with the Euro down 0.03%.

• COMMODITIES: OIL prices closed slightly lower after plunging more than 6% in the previous session. Media reported that ISRAEL Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon. BRENT crude fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to USD 71.12/barrel, while US WTI shed 0.3%, to USD 67.21/barrel.

• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: GFK GERMAN Consumer Climate for Nov was still rather pessimistic overall, although sentiment started to improve slightly. Perhaps the Unemployment Rate figures as well as the preliminary Q3 GDP & CPI (Oct) estimates for GERMANY scheduled for publication today will be more likely to shape sentiment in European markets. Speaking of GDP, there will also be preliminary figures from EUROZONE regarding their economic growth in Q3, where expectations revolve around a percentage of 0.8% yoy, hopefully up from 0.6% in the previous quarter.

• JCI will likely try to hold at the current Support region of 7580, while trying to climb back above a number of Moving Average Resistances beyond the 7715 level. Aside from regional sentiments, domestic catalysts such as the 3rd quarter earnings reports of major banks will certainly be of interest to INDONESIA market players. NHKSI RESEARCH advises investors to be ready for those numbers that could move the general market direction. Please note, as JCI closed yesterday down 28pts / -0.37% to Closing level of 7606, Foreign Net Sell is still looming this time almost IDR 1 trillion exactly IDR 934.51 billion. The RUPIAH exchange rate still remains helpless at 15,759/USD, so we estimate there is still latent danger towards 16,000 – 16,300 again.

Company News

• MTEL: Profit and Revenue Increase, This is MTEL’s Performance in 3Q24
• ADMR: A 32.93% Surplus, ADMR in the Third Quarter of 2024 Recorded a Profit of USD332.99 Million
• ROTI: Sari Roti Sales in Indomaret and Alfamart Reach IDR 1.83 Trillion

Domestic & Global News
RI Opens Up Option to Increase Rice Imports by 1 Million Tons to Meet Reserves in Early 2025
Anticipating Trump to Win US Presidential Election, China Considers Additional Debt Issuance

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