Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : At the close of NYSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 185 points, or 0.4%, higher, the S&P 500 index gained 0.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed higher Tuesday, as bullish bets on tech resumed amid rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
The latest Institute for Supply Management data, showing more manufacturing weakness, has further strengthened expectations of a shift in Fed policy next week, with interest-rate futures suggesting investors now assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting. The move is being driven by a combination of cooling data, easing inflation pressures, and recent remarks from senior Fed officials that hinted at the possibility of lower rates starting sooner than previously anticipated. The prospect of new leadership at the Fed is adding another layer of uncertainty, with the White House considering several candidates to succeed Powell, whose term expires next year.
Bitcoin rose more than 7% to climb back above USD 90K on dip buyers bought the recent selloff, helping ease negative sentiment on crypto-related stocks. Strategy Inc, Coinbase Global Inc, Marathon Petroleum Corp were sharply higher.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : The DAX index in Germany climbed 0.5% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. was flat, while the CAC 40 in France dropped 0.3%. European stocks traded in a mixed fashion on Tuesday, struggling for momentum as investors await key monetary policy decisions during the final month of the year.
European companies repurchased EUR 19.3 billion worth of shares in November 2025, near the peak level since 2017, according to Barclays in a note dated Tuesday. Share repurchases accounted for 2.3% of European equity trading volume during the month, with energy firms and financial institutions generating more than 2.5% of volume through buybacks alone. Fourth-quarter execution has run above historical averages, the analysts noted. The critical factor supporting continued strength is unexecuted capacity. Approximately 70% of 2026 buyback programmes remain outstanding, whilst Barclays’ probability model projects roughly EUR 50 billion in fresh announcements during the first quarter.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets edged higher on Tuesday, lifted by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, while Japanese stocks struggled amid signals the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates.
Investors have been increasingly pricing in a December Fed rate cut, citing softer U.S. economic data and easing inflation pressures. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 1.5%, outperforming its regional peers after the U.S. confirmed that the general tariff rate on imports from South Korea, including autos, would drop to 15% retroactive to November 1. Bucking the trend, China’s blue chip Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite index fell 0.4% each. Hong Kong’s HSI traded up 0.2%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed flat after slumping nearly 2% on Monday following hawkish signals from the BOJ. Officials have flagged concerns over yen depreciation and potential inflation pressures, raising expectations of a near-term rate increase. Investors reacted cautiously, as higher Japanese interest rates could weigh on equities and limit the impact of global monetary easing. BOJ Governor Ueda signaled a possible December rate hike, saying it would slightly adjust easing while keeping monetary conditions accommodative, with the bank carefully weighing the move’s pros and cons. His hawkish comments pushed the yen higher, which weighed on Japan’s export-heavy stock market.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices declined 1% on Tuesday as markets weighed faltering Russia-Ukraine peace hopes against fears of oversupply. Brent crude futures settled 72 cents lower, or 1.14%, at USD 62.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 68 cents, or 1.15%, at USD 58.64 a barrel. Both benchmarks advanced more than 1% on Monday. Investors turned their focus to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks as Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner in the Kremlin on Tuesday.
• INDONESIA : JCI closed in positive territory, up 0.8% to 8,617.04. Current support is seen above the 8,400–8,450 range as the next key support area, while the nearest resistance is at the all-time high level of 8,620, with medium-term resistance at the psychological level of 9,000.
Heading into December, market rotation appears to be shifting back toward conglomerate stocks, including Hapsoro, Salim–Bakrie groups, as well as the fast-internet ecosystem. Investors are advised to continue closely monitoring each stock using individual trailing stops, while also paying attention to index levels and market reactions when trading conglomerate stocks, alongside domestic catalysts and sentiment.
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