Today’s Outlook:
• NASDAQ led the gains in the mostly flat US major stock markets, gaining 0.4% as investors returned to targeting depreciating Technology stocks, helped by positive sentiment from retail sectors such as Macy’s and Lowe’s which reported better than expected quarterly results, ahead of this week’s important Inflation report. The US reported the important ECONOMIC INDICATOR Consumer Confidence which fell to 106.7 for Feb, from 110.9 in the previous month; a 3-month low, with Inflation as the culprit weighing on consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders also fell more than anticipated in Jan, due to a drop in reservations for commercial airlines, which fell 6.1% last month. Both economic data came out after two Fed officials voiced the same tone not to rush into a rate cut plan, as the danger of Inflation has not fully faded. The odds of a 25bps pivot by the Federal Reserve being realized at the June FOMC Meeting is at 59.1%, down from almost certainty at the end of Jan, as surveyed by CME Group FedWatch Tool. The next economic reports this week that will provide more clarity for the central bank are the second estimate of 4th quarter US GDP, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and manufacturing activity.
• COMMODITIES: In other sectors, the Energy sector also slipped due to weakness in some related stocks, although OIL prices rose following a report from Reuters that OPEC+ is considering continuing production cuts in Q2. As is known, since November last year OPEC+ has made voluntary production cuts of around 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, although the agreement among OPEC+ members itself was marked by debate over the idea of limiting output. Later tonight will also be monitored for US Crude Oil inventory figures which are expected to drop 50% from the previous month as US refineries are undergoing maintenance/overhaul.
• EUROPEAN MARKETS: In Germany, the GfK German Consumer Climate rose to an anticipated – 29 for March (as per market expectations), rebounding from -29.6 in Feb which was an 11- month low. From Eurozone, the Consumer Confidence (Feb) report will also be monitored today where it will not move far from the negative 16.1 in the previous month.
• JCI tried the MA20 Support for the second time as well as the lower channel of the Uptrend formed since the bottom of last November. Although the closing position is relatively safe above Support 7250-7260 but to further ensure this uptrend remains intact, JCI should immediately be back above MA10 / 7305. Detected Foreign Net Sell of IDR 1.18 trillion (all market) yesterday, eroding foreign YTD position to IDR 20.24 trillion for this year. NHKSI RESEARCH needs to remind investors/traders to be wiser in managing portfolio placement while WAIT & SEE to see where the market interest goes.
Company News
• INCO: Sah! Harga Divestasi Vale IDR3.050/Lembar
• LPPF: Laba Bersih Anjlok 51,1%
• CRSN: Bersama NBRI Bikin Fasilitas Uji Baterai EV
Domestic & Global News
• Utang Pemerintah Naik Lagi jadi IDR 8.253,09 Triliun, Tertinggi Sepanjang Masa
• Yellen Sebut Ekonomi AS Dongkrak Pertumbuhan Global 2023 di Atas Perkiraan
Download full report HERE.
