Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : At the close of the NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 285 points or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.02% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%. Despite posting a slight gain on Friday, the S&P 500 still recorded its second consecutive weekly decline. Market pressure came from a sharp sell-off in Intel shares following disappointing earnings results, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions throughout the week.
Wall Street staged a rebound on Wednesday and Thursday after steep losses earlier in the week. Sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had reached a framework for a trade agreement related to Greenland and confirmed he would not impose tariffs on European countries, while also withdrawing threats of military force. These remarks provided temporary relief to markets after geopolitical tensions had previously triggered heavy selling.
Nevertheless, U.S.–Europe relations remain uncertain. Trump reignited market concerns by signaling the potential for military action against Iran, citing the movement of U.S. naval forces into the Middle East. On the monetary policy front, markets expect the U.S. central bank to keep interest rates on hold amid rising economic uncertainty, while Trump also confirmed that he has completed the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European equities mostly closed lower on Friday as geopolitical risks once again dominated market sentiment heading into a tense weekend. Germany’s DAX ended flat, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 each slipped 0.1%.
Previously, European stock markets had rallied on Thursday after President Donald Trump withdrew his tariff threats against Europe linked to his efforts to gain control of Greenland. However, all three major European indices remained on track for weekly declines as global political conditions stayed heated. Concerns intensified after Trump again floated the possibility of military action against Iran, mentioning the deployment of U.S. fleets to the Middle East and issuing warnings to Tehran over protests and its nuclear program.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, criticized European leaders’ responses to geopolitical threats. He said Europe appeared “lost” for trying too hard to persuade Trump to change course instead of uniting to strengthen its own defenses. Several European countries also declined to join Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” for Gaza, citing concerns over its composition and its potential role in rivaling the United Nations.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets advanced on Friday, supported by gains in technology shares. Japanese markets also posted modest gains after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The BOJ also revised upward its inflation and economic growth forecasts, shifting market focus to comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda scheduled later in the day.
The BOJ held its policy rate at 0.75% in a near-unanimous decision, while raising growth and inflation projections for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The upward revisions were driven by increased government spending. In its policy statement, the BOJ reiterated that future rate hikes would be gradual, in line with strengthening economic growth and wage gains. The Japanese central bank is expected to remain in wait-and-see mode at least until March or April, pending the outcome of spring wage negotiations, a key indicator of economic and labor market conditions.
South Korea’s KOSPI index rose 0.6%, trading just below its all-time high, supported by continued strength in technology and automotive stocks. The KOSPI was the bestperforming index in Asia this week, gaining around 2.5%.
• COMMODITIES – PRECIOUS METALS:Gold prices surged past the psychological level of USD 5,000 per ounce on Monday, extending last week’s strong rally as investors sought safehaven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions. Spot gold jumped 1.1% to a new record of USD 5,035.83/oz, while U.S. gold futures also climbed 1.1% to a peak of USD 5,074.71/oz. Over the past week, gold has surged more than 8% and is now up nearly 17% year-to-date.
Other precious metals also strengthened. Silver prices jumped more than 2% to a record USD 106.56/oz, while platinum edged up to a new high of USD 2,798.46/oz. These gains were driven by a combination of geopolitical risks, expectations of U.S. monetary policy easing in 2026, and strong demand from central banks and investors seeking protection against market volatility.
• INDONESIA :The JCI closed lower by 0.46% at 8,951.01. If it fails to hold within the current range and close above the psychological resistance-support level of 9,000, reducing positions is advisable. However, the IHSG still has potential to rebound, as its structure consistently shows rejection and rebound from the MA20, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact.
Caution is still warranted amid current market volatility, especially as the RSI indicator signals oversold conditions and the presence of negative divergence suggests potential for further index correction. Despite the risk of correction, momentum in the IHSG remains strong enough for narrative-based trading strategies.
For liquid stocks, investors may consider gold-based commodity stocks in line with gold reaching new all-time highs, as well as other commodity sectors, particularly metals. Meanwhile, for narrative-based trading in lower-liquidity stocks, accumulation opportunities may exist in general insurance sector stocks and KBMI 1 banks, supported by capital injection catalysts
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