Today’s Outlook:
• On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16% and the S&P 500 gained 0.03% as both posted new closing highs, amid optimism over strong results from Nvidia, while bond yields fell as markets bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until at least June. Wall Street mostly rallied as Nvidia’s market capitalization briefly shot above $2 trillion for the first time, boosted by the AI hype that has captured investors’ attention since the chipmaker’s blockbuster quarterly earnings report two days earlier. On the other hand, investors are concerned that Nvidia’s valuation has become expensive after a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 by more than 7% so far this year, amid optimism about the gains companies can make from artificial intelligence (AI).
• Fed Fund Rate futures showed a 52.6% chance of a cut in June, with a 35.5% probability of no cut; a sharp reversal from bets on February 1 with a 62% chance of a cut in March, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the two-year US Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 2.2 basis points to 4.692%, while the 10-year bond yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.252%. The 10-year bond hit a three-month high of 4.3540% overnight.
• EUROPEAN MARKETS: The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.43% to post its fifth consecutive week of gains and a new closing high. France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX also closed at record highs. German business sentiment also fell unexpectedly in Europe’s largest economy in December, as indicated by the German Ifo Business Climate Index. German bond yields are on track for a third consecutive weekly gain as economic data and central bank officials continue to dampen investor hopes for a rapid rate cut by the European Central Bank this year.
• ASIAN MARKETS: The Japanese stock market was closed for a public holiday on Friday, but Nikkei futures rose nearly 1%, suggesting that Japanese stocks will extend their record gains next week. Chinese stocks oscillated between gains and losses. The Shanghai Composite Index rose above the key psychological mark of 3,000 points. The index gained 4.6% for the past week and has risen about 10% from five-year lows set more than two weeks ago. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1%. Data showed on Friday that new home prices in China fell for a seventh month in January, leaving sentiment fragile as policymakers’ efforts to restore confidence in the debt-ridden property sector struggle to gain traction.
• The Dollar Index is poised to record a weekly decline for the first time in 2024 as investors consolidate positions and seek further guidance on the global economy. The dollar index rose 0.029%, with the euro down 0.03% to $1.082.
• COMMODITIES: US crude oil futures fell $2.12 to $76.49 per barrel and Brent fell $2.05 to $81.62. GOLD prices are set for a weekly gain, supported by a weaker dollar. US gold futures closed 0.9% higher at $2,049.40 an ounce.
• JCI closed last week with volatile trading, oscillating between Support 7260 and tough Resistance at 7370, which could never be broken. This week’s gamble whether the Support is able to withstand or JCI finally chooses to be able to break out of the Resistance, is the determination that market players are waiting for. Therefore, NHKSI RESEARCH advises investors/traders to wait for the breakout direction before deciding the action on their respective portfolios.
Company News
• AAALI: Net Profit Drops 38% in 2023
• BBCA: Aiming for Sustainable Credit to Soar 8%
• UNTR: Build Off-Grid Solar Power Plant in South Sumatra
Domestic & Global News
• Sri Mulyani Prepares Fiscal Policy Reference for Government Transition Period
• Japanese Ambassador Opens Up on IDR 15.4 Trillion Electric Car Investment for Asean
Download full report HERE.
