Today’s Outlook:
• World equity markets added to their best month since the COVID vaccine breakthroughs of late 2020 on Thursday (23/11/23) as Europe digested another far-right election shock and oil skidded after OPEC+ postponed its weekend meeting. Traders were getting their moves in despite the annual U.S. Thanksgiving holiday scything volumes but there was plenty to keep them busy while they did it.
• For traders, the next thing was the minutes of the European Central Bank’s most recent meeting that showed cautious optimism about their inflation fighting efforts. Turkey’s central bank also flashed its recently reacquired inflation-fighting credentials by raising its policy rates by another punchy 500 basis points (bps) to 40% having been just 8.5% in early June before the reelection of President Tayyip Erdogan.
• U.S. traders were eyeing their Thanksgiving meals rather than dealing, while in Asia overnight the focus had been signs of more help coming for China’s long-suffering property market.
• MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended up 0.3% in thin trading, with Japan also on holiday, though Chinese real estate stocks jumped 3% on reports debt-laden Country Garden would be on a list of developers getting support. Meanwhile, a large wealth manager with heavy exposure to the property market disclosed that it faces insolvency with relevant liabilities of up to $64 billion. Chinese government advisers will recommend to an annual policymakers’ meeting that economic growth targets for next year be set at 4.5% to 5.5%, Reuters had reported on Wednesday.
• Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 is nearing a fresh high for 2023 and both it and MSCI’s all-country world index are both up more than 8% this month alone. For the MSCI world index, that is the best showing since November 2020 when COVID-19 vaccine hopes were driving markets wild.
• Slightly stronger than expected German, French and UK PMI data nudged the euro, sterling and bond yields higher. Germany’s 10-year bond, the benchmark for Europe, was set to close around 5 bps higher on the day at 2.62% having touched 3% last month. Ten-year U.S. Treasuries are now at 4.4% compared with their October peak of 5%.
• The euro’s bounce pushed the dollar index back down towards a 2-1/2 month low having moved away from it on Wednesday after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected.
• In commodity markets, news that OPEC+ had postponed a weekend meeting sent both Brent and U.S. WTI down as much 2% to $80.70 and $76.03 per barrel respectively on expectations it might see the group cut output less than anticipated.
• JCI finally stayed above 7000 level again after last October. Technically, the Neckline Support Test of this bullish reversal Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern ended successfully, thus envisioning the next JCI upside Target to be around 7130-7150. NHKSI RESEARCH estimates this is a feasible year-end Target for JCI. Investors/traders are welcome to add gradual long positions in leading stocks that have successfully broken their respective resistance.
Company News
• BBCA : Distribute IDR5.2 T Interim Dividend
• PTPP : Working on New Contract Acquisition
• UNVR : Spreading Interim Dividend IDR63/Shares
Domestic & Global News
• The Government-borne VAT Regulation Has Not Been Issued, Ministry of Finance: Waiting for Promulgation
• Chinese Government Advisor Calls for 4.5%-5.5% Economic Growth Target in 2024
Download full report HERE.
