Today’s Outlook:
• Dow Jones and others closed in positive territory on Wednesday (22/11/23) ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday amid optimism that the Federal Reserve is at the end of its interest rate hiking trend while the US economy proves to remain resilient. Economic data mentioning Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Order, and consumer sentiment from the Univ. of Michigan essentially view the economy as slightly weakening but still strong enough to avoid recession. The stock market was also buoyed by the sentiment of Tech megacap stocks such as Google, Microsoft, and Meta which rose by more than 1% on average; helping to maintain market interest amid a 2% slump in Nvidia shares. Nvidia reported Q3 performance above analysts’ estimates, but the chipmaker warned market participants that its sales in China (which account for a fifth of total sales) will drop significantly in Q4 due to the US export ban on AI chips to China. In overall, the stock market is likely to rally before the Thanksgiving holiday and continue to be on a rally path until the end of the year.
• COMMODITIES: Energy stocks ended Wednesday’s trading slightly lower after Crude prices lost nearly 1% following fresh signs of increased supply. OPEC+ postponed its meeting scheduled for Nov. 26 to Nov. 30, amid debates to agree on production levels, fueling uncertainty over potential production cuts. One other catalyst that pressured Oil prices was the US weekly Crude inventory report, which turned out to be much larger than expected. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released weekly changes in commercial oil produced by US companies. For the latest week, there were 8.7m barrels of new Oil additions due to high imports, well above the estimate of 1.16m barrels and also more than twice the previous week’s 3.6m barrels. On the other hand, the US Dollar rebounded from a 2.5-month low after economic data showed lower than expected jobless claims. The strong US Dollar dampened demand from non-US buyers. Analysts expect that, in its efforts to support crude oil prices, OPEC+ will not only need to extend the period of production cuts, but also increase the number of production cuts.
• EUROPEAN & ASIAN MARKETS: Euro zone Consumer Confidence yesterday came in better than expected, although still in pessimistic territory overall. A number of PMI reports will be announced today from France, Germany, Euro zone, and the UK. Indonesian investors/traders will focus more on today’s important domestic catalyst which is BI’s RDG decision on interest rate which is expected to be held at 6.0%.
• JCI closed lower yesterday following the consolidation aura from Asian regional market as investors were nervous waiting for BI’s RDG decision today. However, NHKSI RESEARCH still estimates that this pullback is quite reasonable in order to test the Support Neckline of the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which actually prepares JCI to rally towards 7100-7150 as a year-end TARGET. Investors/traders may begin a gradual collection of selected stocks at the Support price.
Company News
• EXCL : Recorded IDR23.88 Trillion in Revenue
• MBMA : 3Q23 Profit Recorded USD 677.09 Thousand
• MDKA : Suffers Net Loss of USD23.773 Million
Domestic & Global News
• India Stops Rice Exports, FAO Suggests RI Look for Alternative Foods
• ECB Governor Says War on Inflation Not Over Yet
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