Today’s Outlook:
• The US stock market was flat to up with the Nasdaq leading the gains by 0.61% on the back of sentiment from Federal Reserve officials who once again emphasized that the next move from the US central bank is not when a rate cut will be implemented but whether the current monetary policy is tight enough to bring Inflation to the 2% Target. However, the market has priced in a 63.4% chance that there could be a first 25bps rate cut as soon as the March FOMC meeting, as reported by the CME Fed Watch survey.
• Oil prices closed higher on Monday (18/12/23) on the back of easing fears about over supply as Russia plans to cut crude exports by 50,000 barrels more per day (if not more) plus recent weather disruptions have hampered shipments of about 2/3 of Russia’s Urals Oil exports; and Houthi militant attacks on ships in the Red Sea route have only added to supply disruption concerns. The US benchmark crude oil price (WTI) closed up 1.5% at USD72.47/barrel, while the Brent oil contract (Europe) climbed 1.8% at USD77.95/barrel. Both benchmark prices managed to post slight gains last week, breaking a 7-week losing streak, after the latest Federal Reserve meeting decision provided a clearer direction for a potential interest rate cut next year.
• Later in the week, market participants will be looking forward to a number of data to be released by the US Commerce Department, namely the US GDP for the 3rd quarter on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday which will shed light on the growth of people’s income and spending, as well as the main measure of Inflation. Prior to that, however, tonight will see the US Building Permits (Nov) and Housing Starts (Nov) figures which will shed some light on the current health of the US property sector.
• From the Europe, Germany reported a business climate outlook that is still not very optimistic in the next 6 months, reflected in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec) whose figures still dropped below expectations and the previous month’s position. As for this afternoon, Eurozone will release CPI and Core CPI (Nov) figures which are expected to cool down further to 2.4% YoY and 3.6% YoY respectively (from the previous position: 2.9% and 4.2% respectively).
• From the Asian continent, the Japanese central bank’s decision on interest rates this morning will kick off a series of important Asian central bank events throughout the week.
• After the warning of RSI negative divergence at the crucial Resistance area of 7200 which was never penetrated, finally JCI had to give up and closed below MA10 Support. This uptrend can still be maintained as long as JCI still moves above MA20, like the previous incident on 13 December. NHKSI RESEARCH also suggested investors/traders to make the weakening momentum as an opportunity to BUY ON WEAKNESS (gradually).
Company News
• HRUM: Coal Production and Sales Volume Increase by Double Digit
• BBNI: IDR 400 Billion Capital Injection to BNI Finance
• ENRG: Aims 15% Increase in Production
Domestic & Global News
• Surge in Covid-19 Cases Could Threaten Indonesia’s Tourism Business
• Reasons US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Wants to Visit China in 2024
Download full report HERE.
