Today’s Outlook:
• A gauge of global stocks fell on Friday (15/03/24) and was set for a weekly decline that would snap seven straight weekly gains, while the dollar rose and was on track for its strongest week since mid-January, as U.S. inflation data has led to new hopes for interest rate cuts. Data on Friday showed U.S. import prices increased marginally in February as a surge in the cost of petroleum products was partially offset by modest gains elsewhere, suggesting a heating up inflation picture.
• Markets are pricing in a 59.2% chance for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed in June, down from 59.5% in the prior session and 73.3% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at its policy meeting next week but investors will be watching the central bank’s economic projections, including its interest rate forecast.
• On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190.89 points, or 0.49%, to 38,714.77, the S&P 500 lost 33.53 points, or 0.65%, to 5,116.95 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 155.35 points, or 0.96%, to 15,973.17. In addition, a survey from the University of Michigan showed its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations were little changed in March while a separate report said production at U.S. factories increased more than expected in February.
• THE DOLLAR INDEX gained 0.05% at 103.43, recouping some of the prior week’s decline with a gain of 0.71%, with the euro up 0.06% at $1.0889 on the session. Sterling weakened 0.13% at $1.273. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.49% to 149.05, despite expectations the Bank of Japan is expected to end its negative interest rate policy at its meeting next week.
• THE YIELD ON BENCHMARK US 10-year notes was up 1 basis point at 4.308% after reaching 4.322%, its highest since Feb. 23. The 10-year yield has jumped 22 bps this week, the most since mid-October. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.9 basis points to 4.7297% and has risen 24.6 bps for the week, its largest jump in two months.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices dipped, a day after topping $85 a barrel for the first time since November. The oil benchmarks were on track to close out the week with a gain of more than 3%. U.S. crude settled down 0.27% lower on the day at $81.04 a barrel and Brent settled off 0.09% to $85.34 per barrel.
• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: some important data coming from CHINA: Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales. Followed in the afternoon, from EUROZONE: CPI (Feb) & Trade Balance (Jan), where it is expected that Inflation at the consumer level will be able to narrow to 2.6% yoy from 2.8% in the previous month.
• INDONESIA: has just made a brilliant achievement at the ALL ENGLAND badminton international competition where Indonesia confirmed itself as the overall champion after the Indonesian Men’s Singles and Doubles won the gold medal, even in the all Indonesian men’s singles repeating the history of 30 years ago. Will this national euphoria be able to lift the market sentiment which was quite gloomy last week, when JCI turned down after touching the latest record level of 7454.45, and is currently in a position to test the nearest Support which is a collection of MA10 & MA20 around the level of 7330. NHKSI RESEARCH still gives one last tolerance of JCI Support in this uptrend at 7270 which is the location of MA50 and lower channel support – uptrend. Investors/traders are advised not to be too speculative this week due to crucial regional and domestic market factors, namely the FOMC Meeting decision along with the KPU final decision on the election results on March 20th.
Company News
• BSDE: 2023 Profit Remains IDR1.95 Trillion
• DGNS: Plans for Right Issue
• MAHA: 2023 Net Profit Slumps 46.7%
Domestic & Global News
• Indonesia’s Leading Export Products Plummet, GPEI Reveals the Causes
• US Passes Bill to Ban TikTok for Threatening Elections
Download full report HERE.
