Today’s Outlook:
• Wall Street fell in bunches at the close of trading on Wednesday (17/4/2024) with the NASDAQ leading the decline by 1.2%. The S&P 500 fell for the fourth consecutive session, triggered by declines in Nvidia shares and other big tech companies such as Netflix, Apple, Meta, and MIcrosoft. However, the market decline was cushioned by a drop in US Treasury yields after hitting a more than 5-month high the previous day following a strong 20-year bond auction, with the 10-year bond yield holding around 4.59%. The sluggishness in the technology sector, also known as growth stocks, is due to concerns that interest rates are still needed higher for longer, especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a similar statement on Tuesday. Several other key Fed officials such as Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are scheduled to speak today. The Fed Beige Book which surveys economic activity showed little expansion from late February to early April, while companies are concerned that efforts to lower inflation further appear stagnant. Market participants estimate the chance that interest rates will begin to be cut in June to only 16.8% left at this time, and rewind the projection to July with a greater probability of 46%, as reported by the CME FedWatch Tool. Later tonight, the Initial Jobless Claims figure will be awaited again as usual every week, where this time it is expected that there will be an additional 215 thousand jobless claims, which should be greater than the previous week’s 211 thousand. Not to forget the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales (Mar.) figures will add consideration in assessing further US economic strength.
• The financial reporting season also attracts investors’ attention and adds to market dynamics. Less than 10% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 have reported results to date, but 3 out of every 4 companies have exceeded Wall Street expectations, according to data from FactSet. Nevertheless, in fact, the DJIA has lost more than 5% in April, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have also fallen more than 4%.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices retreated 3% on Wednesday as US crude oil weekly stockpiles surged by 2.7 million barrels, well above the 1.6 million barrels forecast by economists. Concerns that oversupply does not match global demand, which still seems sluggish, outweigh the Middle East conflict that threatens the smooth flow of global oil logistics, even though the world is still nervously awaiting what kind of retaliatory strike Israel will launch against Iran.
• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: JAPAN reported a March Trade Balance surplus of JPY 366.5bn which contradicts the previous month’s deficit of JPY 377.8bn; although their Exports only grew 7.3% yoy in March, slightly weaker than the previous month’s 7.8%. Talking about INFLATION, continental Europe seems to be quite under control as UK & EUROZONE released March CPI figures at 3.2% yoy and 2.4% respectively, both cooling down from the previous month’s position: 3.4% for the UK and 2.6% for the Eurozone.
• Good news from Indonesia’s Retail Sales announced yesterday that there was a 6.4% growth in February, much higher than 1.1% in the previous month. However, the data was unable to stem the further decline of JCI, so it had to close at 7130 or cut 34 pts/-0.47% where Foreign Net Sell was recorded at IDR 470.67bn; making JCI land exactly on the Support trendline created since the beginning of the year. NHKSI RESEARCH estimates that there is still a threat of consolidation today until the next Support 7100, although the downside potential could be contained by trading opportunities in several large cap sectors/groups of stocks.
Company News
• ASII: Four Wheel Sales Drop 23% Throughout March 2024
• SDRA: Right Issue IDR500/Share
• WIFI: Profit Increased to IDR58.5M in 2023
Domestic & Global News
• Minister of Industry Opens Up about Apple’s Investment of Rp1.6 Trillion in Indonesia
• US Imposes Sanctions on Iran, Oil Exports to be Cut
Download full report HERE.
