Global stocks and bold yields moved in positive territory on Tuesday (11/04/23) as world traders anticipate US benchmark interest rates will soon peak at the upcoming central bank meeting in May. Global gold prices also crawled back above the psychological level of USD 2000/ounce, as the US dollar began to slope, while world oil prices began the climb amid China’s March inflation data, which still weakened back to 0.7% YoY (lower than February at 1%). Investors are keeping a close eye on the US Inflation data due later tonight at around 19.30 GMT, where expectations are that CPI (Mar.) could ease to 5.2% YoY (from 6% in the previous month); up to 5.6% YoY (as reported by Reuters). The PPI (Mar.) aka inflation producer level is also expected to tame to 3% YoY (from Feb. at 4.6%), which data will appear on Thursday. The market is pricing in a 71.8% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates by 25 bps, putting it in the 5.0-5.25% range by the time they finalize the FOMC Meeting on May 3rd, as reported by CME Group Fedwatch. At the same time, the market also expects interest rates to slowly fall to 4.394% by the end of the year as the economy slows and potentially enters a recession; despite Federal Reserve officials often emphasizing that they insist on dragging down inflation to the 2% target. The IMF cut global economic growth in 2023 to 2.8% and to 3% in 2024 on the premise that high interest rates could dampen business activity, while warning of the threat of recession since the turmoil in the financial system. The US Dollar index retreated 0.322%, while Gold price futures returned to the throne of USD2019/ ounce. China’s inflation fell to an 18-month low on weak demand, even their PPI (Mar.) showed disinflation to -2.5% (from -1.4% the previous month). From the Europe, Eurozone investors’ confidence for April seemed to improve, although on the other hand their Retail Sales data for Feb. seemed to show weakness with minus 3% compared to minus 1.8% the previous month. South Korea’s central bank started to hold back on interest rate hikes yesterday; Canada’s central bank is expected to do the same at their meeting this Wednesday.

JCI closed Tuesday’s trade with a gain of 40pts/+0.59% climbing back above the MA 10 or perched at 6811.31, supported by foreign net buy which came back in at IDR 591.35 billion, increasing their monthly balance to IDR 5.94 trillion and YTD figure at 9.17 trillion. Today’s focus for JCI is to try to break the next Resistance, which is MA 50 at 6818 -6820; up to the critical level of 6850-6870 which will break the JCI medium term downtrend. NHKSI RESEARCH suggests to Average Up accordingly while waiting for important economic data from the US which plays a big role in determining the market direction going forward.

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