Today’s Outlook:
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting, which is widely expected to result in a third interest rate cut this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 178 points or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite both slipped 0.1%. Market pressure reflected investor caution ahead of the Fed’s decision, amid a lack of fresh economic data due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown.
The probability of a rate cut is now estimated at 89%, according to CME FedWatch, from the current target range of 3.75%–4%. However, concerns persist as some Fed officials have expressed unease over further easing given the limited availability of recent economic data. The latest ADP report showed that U.S. private payroll growth averaged only 4,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 22, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will remain cautious going forward.
On the corporate front, Warner Bros Discovery returned to the spotlight after Paramount Skydance submitted a hostile bid worth USD 108.4 billion, just days after Netflix won a bidding war for part of Warner’s assets. The bid far exceeds the USD 72 billion deal previously secured by Netflix for Warner’s film, television, and streaming businesses. Paramount’s offer covers Warner’s entire business, including its cable television networks.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets traded mixed on Tuesday as global investors closely monitored the start of the Fed’s policy meeting. Germany’s DAX rose 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.7%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 ended flat. Economic data showed German exports edged up 0.1% in October month-onmonth, beating market expectations of a 0.5% decline. This provided a modest boost of optimism for Germany’s economic resilience amid ongoing global pressures.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian markets moved within a flat-to-lower range on Tuesday as caution increased ahead of the Fed’s rate decision. Australian stocks extended modest losses after the central bank delivered a hawkish hold. Chinese markets traded sideways as investors reacted to the government’s commitment to expand fiscal spending.
The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.4% after investors digested the outcome of the Communist Party’s Politburo meeting, which pledged to continue expanding fiscal support for the economy. The government is also expected to maintain its GDP growth target at around 5% for 2026. Nevertheless, China’s economy remains under pressure from a prolonged property downturn, weak consumption, and slowing investment.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.3%, weighed down by losses in chip stocks after U.S. President Donald Trump said Nvidia would be allowed to sell AI chips to China. Concerns emerged that Nvidia’s re-entry could hurt the competitiveness of local Chinese chipmakers.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday after sliding 2% in the previous session. Brent crude settled down 55 cents or 0.88% at USD 61.94 per barrel, while WTI fell 63 cents or 1.07% to USD 58.25 per barrel. The pressure came from concerns over ample supply as well as developments in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which could potentially free up previously sanctioned global oil supply.
Iraq had earlier restored production at Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 oilfield—one of the world’s largest—adding further pressure to prices. The Ukrainian government is also reportedly set to submit a revised peace plan to the U.S. following talks between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany, and the U.K.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.6% at 8,667.2. The current support level is now reinforced above the 8,600 zone as a new support, with the next support at 8,400–8,450 and medium-term resistance at the psychological level of 9,000. However, with the potential formation of a negative RSI divergence on the IHSG, investors are advised to prepare for a possible pullback.
For December, market rotation remains concentrated in conglomerate stocks, including the Hapsoro and Salim–Bakrie groups, as well as the fast-internet ecosystem plays. Investors are advised to closely monitor positions using individual trailing stops while observing index levels and market responses when trading conglomerate stocks, alongside tracking domestic catalysts and sentiment to capture trading opportunities.
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