Today’s Outlook :

 

• US MARKET : The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,824.63 on Thursday. The NASDAQ gained 0.8% to 22,822.42, and the Dow Jones rose 0.6% to 48,185.80. The gains were driven by bargain hunting after the market had been significantly pressured in March due to uncertainty surrounding the Iran war. Technology stocks—particularly the semiconductor sector—were the main drivers, as investors began accumulating ahead of the upcoming earnings season in the next few weeks.

 

 

From a geopolitical standpoint, the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to meet in Pakistan after agreeing to a temporary two-week ceasefire. However, the situation remains fragile: Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the agreement and demanded that Lebanon be included in the peace deal. Israel, on the other hand, stated it would pursue separate negotiations with Beirut. Uncertainty has also increased as Iran’s participation in the talks has become unclear. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key issue, as the route had been restricted by Iran despite earlier assurances it would remain open during the ceasefire. Despite the risks, hopes for direct U.S.–Iran dialogue for the first time since the February conflict have continued to support positive market sentiment this week

 

 

Investors are also awaiting the release of U.S. March CPI inflation data on Friday, which is expected to show a significant increase due to rising energy prices. The closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global oil and gas prices, directly impacting fuel and utility costs. If inflation proves to remain high (sticky), the Federal Reserve may have less room to cut interest rates this year. As a comparison, February PCE data—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—was previously released in line with expectations.

 

 

 

• EUROPEAN MARKET : European markets mostly closed lower after the previous rally. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.4%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%. The pressure came from rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which dampened investor optimism and triggered profit-taking.

 

 

 

•  ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets moved sideways to lower, reflecting investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty and energy price movements. South Korea’s KOSPI was the worst performer, down 1.3% due to weakness in chip stocks. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.4% and TOPIX declined 0.6%.

 

 

In China, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite each fell around 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also dropped 0.5%, weighed by a decline in Alibaba shares after analysts cut their price target. Sentiment weakened further after Iran called ceasefire talks “unreasonable” amid ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

 

 

In addition, the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for Asia’s energy supply— remains partially restricted, with only a limited number of ships passing through since the ceasefire was announced. This has heightened concerns over prolonged energy supply disruptions. While U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet, details of the discussions and negotiation direction remain unclear, keeping markets defensive.

 

 

 

• COMMODITIES : Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading, extending moderate gains from the previous session. Brent rose 0.8% to $96.70 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.7% to $98.52 per barrel. Despite facing pressure earlier in the week, oil prices continue to be supported by supply disruption risks from the Middle East.

 

 

The main disruption stems from restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil distribution route. Reports indicate vessel backlogs and limited insurance coverage, slowing the normalization of shipments. As long as these conditions persist, energy price volatility is expected to remain elevated.

 

 

 

• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher by +0.39% in the green at 7,307.59, with the next resistance still in the 7,200–7,300 range. As long as it has not broken above 7,300 convincingly, volatility and consolidation are likely to continue within the 6,900–7,300 range. Yesterday’s IHSG gain was also supported by DSSA, which has officially conducted a stock split, improving its bid-offer liquidity, alongside support from the Barito Group. However, it is worth noting that banking stocks remained a drag on the index.

 

 

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