Today’s Outlook:
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed a strong November at its highest point since January 2022 at 35950, around 1000pts away from an All-Time-High of 36952 as investors celebrated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data that showed Inflation had cooled as expected, along with a softening Personal Spending (Oct) report. Both of the above data pushed back expectations that the Federal Reserve could already end its interest rate hike cycle. The DJIA led the gains on the last trading day of November with a 1.5% gain, bringing it up 8% during November, which was its best month since Oct 2022. This bullish performance was followed by the S&P500 which jumped 9% during Nov, while the Nasdaq skyrocketed 10.7%; with both indexes posting their best performance since July 2022.
• The PCE price index, which is the Fed’s favorite measure of Inflation, on a monthly basis slowed to a 0% pace in October, compared to the forecast of 0.1% and from 0.4% last month; on an annual basis it fell to 3.4% from 3.7% in the previous period. Meanwhile, core PCE Inflation which the Fed believes is a more accurate gauge for Inflation, slowed to 3.5% yoy from 3.7% in the previous month. The slowing pace of Inflation came even as the labor market appeared stronger than expected as weekly jobless claims climbed by less than expected. In the last week updated, Initial Jobless Claims was released at 218k, smaller than the estimate of 220k although it managed to expand from the previous week’s 211k. Bond yields were unaffected by signs of slowing Inflation, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising 7.1 basis points to 4.339%. In terms of economic data, later tonight the US will announce PMI data following several major Asian & European countries that are scheduled today.
• Fed New York President Williams said Thursday that the Fed’s rate-hike cycle has likely come to end, though warned that if disinflation doesn’t continue, then the central bank could resume hikes. The remarks come ahead of a speech by Fed chairman Jerome Powell on Friday. The Fed chief is expected to deliver remarks at a fireside chat with Spelman College President Helene Gayle.
• Oil prices fell in volatile trade Thursday (30/11/23) after OPEC+ members agreed to make additional voluntary production cuts that fell short of expectations.
• Excluding Saudi and Russian production cuts, OPEC+ members plan to make additional voluntary production cuts, totalling about 684,000 barrels per day, which fell short of expectations for cuts of about 1 million barrels. In an unusual move that points to signs of potential divisions in the group, the plans for voluntary cuts were announced by individual OPEC+ members that than the secretariat. Saudi Arabia pledged to extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of Q1, while Russia said it would deepen its crude export curbs to 500,000 bpd from 300,000 bpd previously.
• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: South Korea set the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% on their monetary policy which has been maintained for 8 months. China’s Manufacturing PMI weakened below expectations, unable to move out of contraction territory; though fortunately the Composite PMI held at 50.4 in expansion territory. Germany reported improved Retail Sales in Oct, although the Unemployment Rate in Nov increased to 5.9%. Eurozone released a preliminary estimate of Nov Inflation which slid to 2.4% yoy, and Core CPI is expected to cool to 3.6% yoy. From the Asian continent, today Japan, South Korea, China, and Indonesia will simultaneously release PMI figures. Not to forget, Indonesian market players will focus on Nov Inflation data which will be released at around 11:00 AM GMT where consensus expects Inflation to heat up to 2.71% YoY compared to 2.56% in the previous month. Core inflation which excludes volatile goods prices such as food and energy, is also expected to strengthen to 1.97% YoY from 1.91% in Oct.
• JCI has touched the 7100 Resistance area, which is the highest point since Nov 2022. Good performance was also achieved by JCI which gained 6.6% during the month of Nov. NHKSI RESEARCH thinks conservative year-end target around 7130-7150 could be achieved sooner than expected, which is good news as it leaves more room for further strengthening.

Company News
• PGAS : Absorbed USD132 Million in Capital Expenditures Up to 3Q23
• ELSA : Develop Real-time Portable Well Test Device
• BUMI : Net Profit Drops by 84% as of 3Q23

Domestic & Global News
• Food Prices Rise Due to El Nino, November 2023 Inflation Forecasted at 2.73%
• US Economy Grows 5.2% in Q3/2023, Highest in 2 Years

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