Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday, driven by a strong rally amid hopes of Middle East de-escalation. The S&P 500 rose 2.9% to 6,528.99, the NASDAQ jumped 3.8% to 21,590.63, and the Dow Jones gained 2.5% to 46,341.21. Sentiment improved after reports that President Donald Trump is open to ending the war without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also stated it is ready to end the war if given security guarantees. This rally pushed the Nasdaq out of correction territory, following the Dow a day earlier. However, March performance remained negative: S&P 500 – 5.1%, Nasdaq -4.8%, and Dow -5.4% (worst since September 2022).
Reports indicated Trump wants to end the military operation despite Iran still controlling the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has triggered a spike in global oil prices. The U.S. is expected to pressure Iran both militarily and diplomatically, while encouraging allies to take a larger role in the region. Trump said the war will not last much longer and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. He also urged affected countries to buy fuel from the U.S. and become more self-reliant in dealing with the conflict.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks rose on Tuesday despite sharply rising oil prices, supported by reports that President Donald Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.3%, the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, and France’s CAC 40 increased 0.6%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks were mixed on Tuesday as markets digested developments in the U.S.–Israel war against Iran. The region remains weighed down by sharp declines throughout March due to the conflict.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI were the worst performers in March, mainly due to heavy pressure on technology stocks. The KOSPI fell 2.2% on Tuesday and was the worst-performing market in Asia for March, plunging around 17%. The decline was driven by concerns over energy supply disruptions from the Iran war, as well as heavy selling in chip stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix amid uncertainty over long-term AI-driven chip demand.
In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also dropped 0.4%. The decline came despite positive March PMI data, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity exceeding expectations, indicating improving business activity supported by export demand and government stimulus.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices edged higher in early Wednesday trading, with Brent extending its strong March rally amid Middle East volatility, despite reports that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a peace agreement. Front-month Brent for June rose 0.63% to USD 104.63 per barrel. Brent posted a record monthly gain of 64% in March (data since 1988). WTI for May rose 0.95% to USD 102.34 per barrel, while the June contract gained 0.49% to USD 93.62 per barrel. Oil output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 7.3 million barrels per day in March compared to the previous month, reflecting the impact of export cuts due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Supply disruptions and the closure of the route have prompted analysts to significantly raise their annual oil price forecasts from February to March.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.61% at 7,048.22 and remains in a ranging phase. For now, a faster-paced scalping trading strategy is more appropriate given global volatility and rising oil prices, which continue to weigh on the index. However, with global markets—especially the U.S.— starting to strengthen alongside easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the market has potential to rebound.
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