Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed sharply higher on Wednesday after news of a ceasefire raised hopes that the nearly six-week conflict in the Middle East could soon ease. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,782.96 points, the Dow Jones jumped 2.9% to 47,909.92 points—marking its best daily performance in a year—while the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.8% to 22,635.0 points as technology stocks recovered part of their losses since March.
The gains were led by the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 6%, driven by rises in Micron, NVIDIA, and Intel shares. Positive sentiment also came from Samsung Electronics, which projected very strong firstquarter earnings
On the other hand, markets were also watching the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, which carried a somewhat hawkish tone. Fed officials highlighted concerns that rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions could push inflation higher in the coming months.
Despite signals of a ceasefire, the geopolitical situation has not yet recovered. Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the peace proposal, mainly because Israeli attacks on Lebanon are still ongoing. Iran was also reported to have closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks. U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to continue talks in Pakistan later this weekend, while oil prices, which had briefly fallen after the ceasefire news, partially rebounded.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets surged on Wednesday, following gains in Asian markets and U.S. stock futures, after investors responded positively to the temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran in a conflict that has lasted more than a month. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 4.4%, Germany’s DAX jumped 5.3%, France’s CAC 40 gained 4.9%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 3.1%.
Market sentiment was also supported by falling yields on major government bonds in Germany and France, which move inversely to bond prices. The decline in yields helped support equity valuations and strengthened investor optimism.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets surged on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire. Japanese and South Korean markets led the gains, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and a rally in technology shares, especially in the chip sector.
South Korea’s KOSPI and Japan’s Nikkei 225 each rose more than 5%, making them the best performers in Asia. Gains were driven by a jump in technology stocks after Samsung Electronics projected first-quarter earnings to rise eightfold thanks to demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Samsung shares rose more than 6%, while SK Hynix surged nearly 11%. Both markets were also helped by bargain hunting after lagging throughout March, with the KOSPI having fallen nearly 20% last month.
Broader Asian markets also strengthened. China’s CSI 300 index rose 2.3%, the Shanghai Composite added 1.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed nearly 3%.
However, by Thursday market sentiment turned more cautious as signs emerged that the ceasefire in the Gulf region was beginning to crack. Oil prices rose again, reminding investors that the inflationary impact of this conflict could persist for a long time. In addition, there is still no clarity regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran continues to assert control over the crucial oil distribution route and demand fees for safe passage.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose on Thursday after recording their deepest daily decline since April 2020 the previous day. The increase came as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued, while renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over energy supplies.
Brent Oil Futures rose 2.5% to US$97.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 2.8% to US$97.09 per barrel. Previously, both benchmarks had fallen more than 13% due to market optimism over the ceasefire.
The price rebound was triggered because the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route carrying around one-fifth of global oil supply—has still not fully reopened despite the temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Tanker movements have indeed started to resume, but they remain highly limited and tightly controlled, with Iran maintaining major control over transit access.
Market sentiment was also disturbed by escalating Israeli attacks on Lebanon that risk weakening the ceasefire. Reports said tanker traffic had briefly stopped following the latest strikes, although U.S. officials signaled a partial reopening. Iran also stated that peace talks with the U.S. had become “unreasonable” after the attacks, as they were considered a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher by +4.42% in the green zone at 7279.71, where the next resistance currently remains in the 7200-7300 range. As long as it has not broken solidly above 7300, volatility and consolidation are likely to continue within the 6900- 7300 range. For Indonesia at the moment, it is wiser to take advantage of faster-paced scalping trades, in line with global volatility conditions and expectations that the market today may face correction following Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon.
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