Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed mostly lower on Monday, after an earlysession rebound attempt failed to hold. Heavy selling pressure in the bond market began to ease following positive comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Middle East conflict remained in focus, with mixed signals surrounding U.S.–Iran peace negotiations.
The benchmark S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 6,343.75, reversing a gain of as much as 0.9%. The NASDAQ Composite declined 0.7% to 20,794.64, erasing gains of up to 0.9%. The Dow Jones rose slightly by 0.1% to 45,216.66 and exited correction territory.
Last week, major Wall Street indices declined despite President Donald Trump delaying until April 6 the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran instead reported attacks on industrial and civilian nuclear facilities, contradicting the delay. This uncertainty weighed on market sentiment, pushing the Nasdaq and Dow into correction territory (down ≥10%), while the S&P 500 closed 8.7% below its latest record high.
Powell was in focus following a discussion at Harvard. He emphasized that current monetary policy is flexible enough to “wait and see” the impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and the economy. He also noted that inflation expectations remain well-anchored in the medium term, allowing the central bank to look past temporary energy supply shocks.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks rallied on Monday, while oil prices rose again as the joint U.S.–Israel war on Iran entered its second month. The panEuropean Stoxx 600 index rose around 0.9%. France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX also gained about 0.9%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 1.6%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks fell on Monday, driven by concerns over the escalation of the U.S.–Israel war against Iran. Japanese markets led the losses after signals of potential interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX were the worst performers in Asia, each dropping more than 3%. The decline followed comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who said the central bank is closely monitoring yen weakness, which raises import costs and could prompt rate hikes. He stated that policy will be guided appropriately by assessing currency movements and their economic impact. While not a direct signal, his remarks reinforced earlier indications that rates could rise alongside improving inflation and growth.
Asian tech stocks also declined, tracking U.S. losses due to profit-taking and concerns over AI’s impact. South Korea’s KOSPI fell around 3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped about 1%, with tech weighing on the Nikkei. South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 2.5% and 4.8%, respectively, extending last week’s losses after Google’s new compression algorithm raised uncertainty over long-term AI memory demand.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices were generally higher on Monday in volatile trading, as escalating Middle East tensions contradicted U.S. claims of ongoing peace talks with Iran. Yemen’s Houthi group joined the conflict by attacking Israel, further expanding the war now entering its second month. President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if no deal is reached. As of 15:52 ET (19:52 GMT), Brent crude for June rose 2.8% to USD 108.24 per barrel, while the May contract gained 1.1% to USD 113.83 per barrel. WTI crude rose 4.6% to USD 104.22 per barrel. Soybean oil in Chicago climbed as much as 3.4%, supported by higher crude oil prices boosting the biofuel sector. Soyoil—used in renewable diesel and food products like salad dressing—is nearing a new three-year high amid U.S. threats against Iranian energy assets and rising oil prices.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed flat at 7,097.67. Despite a sharp drop in the first session of the final trading day, the index rebounded in the second session back to its opening level, forming a hammer candle. For now, given global volatility and rising oil prices as negative sentiment, a faster-paced scalping trading strategy may be more appropriate in the Indonesian market.
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