Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday after Donald Trump said the U.S. was unsure whether it could or was willing to reach a peace deal with Iran. Oil prices rose amid the Middle East conflict. The NASDAQ fell 2.4% to 21,408.08 and has entered correction territory (down >10% from its peak). The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to 6,478.41, while the Dow Jones declined 1% to 45,959.43.
Trump said Iran was “begging” for a deal, but he remains uncertain whether the U.S. will proceed. He also extended the suspension of attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days and said negotiations were going well, despite mixed messaging.
Markets have been moving up and down due to conflicting news about the conflict, weighing on sentiment despite hopes for a resolution. Reports suggest Iran is open to discussions, and Vice President JD Vance may potentially be involved in negotiations. Meanwhile, memory-related stocks declined after Google researchers introduced a new compression algorithm that could reduce AI memory demand.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks declined on Thursday, while oil prices climbed back above USD 100 per barrel as hopes for resolving the Iran conflict faded. The Stoxx 600 fell 1.1%, Germany’s DAX dropped 1.6%, France’s CAC 40 declined 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 1.3%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks moved flat to lower on Thursday amid mixed signals on potential de-escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, while rising oil prices added pressure.
South Korea’s KOSPI was the worst performer, falling up to 3%, dragged by memory chip stocks amid concerns that Google’s new compression technology could reduce AI memory demand. Samsung Electronics fell around 4% and SK Hynix dropped about 5%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX declined 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively, reversing earlier gains. Japan has begun releasing strategic oil reserves to offset supply disruptions from the Iran conflict, with plans to release around 80 million barrels. This aligns with similar moves by other major economies to ease energy shocks.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices pared some gains on Thursday after Donald Trump delayed U.S. attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 10 days and said peace talks were ongoing. Earlier, he had expressed uncertainty about pursuing a deal, but also noted Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass as a sign of good faith. Oil has shown an inverse relationship with equities this week—falling when stocksrise, and vice versa—adding pressure to markets. At 16:38 ET, Brent crude (May contract) rose 4.9% to USD 107.22 per barrel, while WTI climbed 3.4% to USD 93.42 per barrel. Prices remain highly volatile due to supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent having nearly reached USD 120 per barrel earlier this month.
• INDONESIA : The JCI extended its correction, dropping 1.89% to close at 7,164.1. The extreme volatility seen in global markets over the past week is expected to spill over into Indonesia, with pressures coming from declining gold and commodity prices that could weigh on commoditylinked stocks. Despite recent negative sentiment around markets and fiscal risks, the IHSG has stopped forming lower lows below the psychological level of 7,000. For now, a faster-paced scalping trading strategy may be more suitable, given ongoing global volatility.
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