Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street surged on Monday after being pressured last week, driven by falling oil prices. Nvidia shares rose after its CEO issued a strong projection for demand for AI chips, which also lifted technology stocks. This week is important for markets as several global central banks are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions. It is also the first opportunity for policymakers to respond to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, which has entered its third week. The S&P 500 index rose 1.1% to 6,702.18, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.2% to 22,374.18, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.8% to 46,946.41.
Oil prices remain in the spotlight as the Strait of Hormuz—an important route south of Iran through which about one-fifth of global oil shipments pass—remains effectively closed by Tehran, disrupting energy flows and threatening the global economy. Although the U.S. has attempted to ease supply concerns, including by relaxing some sanctions on Russian oil, crude prices have continued to rise. As a result, gasoline prices have also increased and may push inflation higher, becoming a key concern for U.S. voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in November. After President Donald Trump called on several countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported that some U.S. allies—particularly NATO countries—were reluctant to provide assistance. Trump previously told the Financial Times that NATO member states should help reopen the strait and warned that the future of NATO could be affected if they fail to respond. Trump also singled out China, even threatening to cancel a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping in April if Beijing does not use its influence to reopen the strait. The New York Times reported that tankers carrying oil to China have still been allowed to pass, while other vessels have been hit by projectiles.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks rose on Monday, supported by the relative decline in oil prices and the conflict in Iran entering its third week. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, France’s CAC 40 increased 0.3%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.6%.
Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz—surrounded by Iran on three sides—has been effectively closed by Tehran, pushing energy prices sharply higher and worsening the outlook for the global economy. For Europe in particular, the disruption risks reigniting inflation in a region that only months ago was considered to have largely contained price growth. Europe is a major importer of energy products that pass through the strait, potentially weighing on an economy that has recently been stagnant. As oil and gas prices have surged, borrowing costs across the region have also increased, partly reflecting concerns that the European Central Bank may once again consider raising interest rates.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets declined on Monday, pressured by persistently high oil prices as the Middle East conflict entered its third week with no signs of easing.
The spike in crude prices has raised concerns about inflation, particularly in Asia where many economies rely heavily on imported energy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 1.2%, while the broader TOPIX index declined 1%. South Korea’s KOSPI index also slipped 0.5%
Investors also assessed fresh economic data from China released on Monday. China’s industrial output in the January–February period rose 6.3% YoY, exceeding expectations and accelerating from 5.2% growth in December. Retail sales—a key gauge of consumption—grew 2.8% YoY, also beating forecasts and improving from 0.9% in December. The data pointed to a stronger-than-expected start to the year for the world’s second-largest economy, although investors remained cautious amid global geopolitical risks
China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 1%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 declined 0.8%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was relatively flat.
• COMMODITIES :
OIL : Oil prices fell about 3% on Monday after several vessels managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, even as U.S. allies rejected President Donald Trump’s call to help reopen the route. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) also stated that more oil reserves could be released to the market to curb rising prices caused by the Iran war. Brent crude fell USD 2.93 (-2.8%) to USD 100.21 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped USD 5.21 (-5.3%) to USD 93.50 per barrel. Governments around the world are attempting to shield consumers from soaring energy costs as disruptions to global oil and gas supplies caused by the war ripple through economies.
Trump again called on other nations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and complained about the lack of support from allies. European Union foreign ministers currently have “no appetite” to expand the EU naval mission in the Middle East to the strait, according to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Monday. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping route through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass. Iran, which has allowed several Indian vessels to pass through the strait, also asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of negotiations to ensure safe passage for Indian-flagged or India-bound vessels through the strait, according to three sources familiar with the talks cited by Reuters.
• INDONESIA : The JCI again corrected by -1.6% to 7,022.3 amid concerns over Indonesia’s fiscal outlook, panic over global crude oil prices rising again to touch USD 100 per barrel, and investor actions that appear to be reducing positions ahead of the long Idul Fitri holiday. Investors need to be cautious with equity positions as the yield of ID10YT has started to trend upward. Investors are expected to remain cautious given the still-heating global conditions and the highly volatile movement in oil prices, while adopting faster-paced trading in line with market movements that resemble a “kangaroo market.”
Download Full Report HERE.
