Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday and recorded weekly losses amid volatile oil prices driven by the Iran war, which heightened concerns over global energy supply. The Russell 2000 even posted its lowest close of the year. Oil prices rose again despite U.S. President Donald Trump temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil to calm supply concerns. WTI climbed 3.11% to USD 98.71 per barrel, while Brent rose 2.67% to USD 103.14, surpassing USD 100 for the first time since August 2022.
Trump’s pledge to strike Iran more aggressively, along with reports that the conflict had spread to Lebanon, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman, dampened hopes for de-escalation. Iran also tightened its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The IEA warned the war could trigger the largest oil supply disruption in history.
Meanwhile, a downward revision to U.S. Q4 GDP and several weak economic indicators added pressure on markets. Despite softer data, markets still expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, with the likelihood of a near-term rate cut diminishing. The Dow Jones fell 0.26%, the S&P 500 declined 0.61%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.93%. The technology sector posted the largest losses, while utilities gained. The financial sector also fell 3.4% for the week amid concerns over credit quality.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed lower on Friday as oil prices hovered around USD 100 per barrel, despite the U.S. allowing some countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil to ease tight global supply. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% after earlier dropping as much as 1.2% during the session. Germany’s DAX declined 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 fell 0.9%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.4%.
Meanwhile, France’s inflation—in Europe’s second-largest economy—rose 1.1% yearon-year in February based on the EU-harmonized measure, in line with estimates and higher than 0.4% in January. A similar measure in Spain edged up to 2.5%.
• ASIAN MARKET :Most Asian stocks fell on Friday as markets remained cautious amid little sign of de-escalation in the U.S.–Israel war with Iran, with the conflict’s inflationary impact becoming a key concern. Sentiment was also pressured by fears of oil supply disruptions after Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks. Asia relies heavily on oil supplies from the Middle East, meaning a prolonged disruption could trigger widespread economic effects.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI were the worst performers, each falling about 1.2%, while the broader TOPIX slipped 0.6%. The Nikkei was also dragged lower after Honda Motor shares plunged more than 6% following a forecast of annual losses linked to electric vehicle restructuring costs.
Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose slightly and posted mild weekly gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.2%, marking a 0.3% weekly loss amid weakness in local technology stocks.
• COMMODITIES :
OIL : Oil prices surged in Asian trading on Monday as the U.S.–Israel war with Iran showed no signs of easing, especially after attacks on Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports. Brent briefly jumped 3% to USD 106.50 per barrel before trimming gains to around USD 104.77. The U.S. struck Kharg Island over the weekend, with President Donald Trump saying the attack targeted military assets but also threatening Iran’s oil infrastructure.
Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Persian Gulf, targeting population centers and U.S. military assets. Tehran also continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carries about 20% of global oil supply, after previously attacking ships near the passage.
Trump also urged several countries, including China, to help reopen the strait. He even threatened to delay a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and warned of negative consequences for NATO if the alliance failed to assist in resolving the Iran conflict.
U.S. officials still claim the war could end quickly, while Iran says it remains ready to defend itself. The U.S. is also reportedly preparing an international coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
• INDONESIA : JCI fell 3.05% to 7,137.2, tracking global market weakness and panic over rising crude oil prices, which have again reached USD 100 per barrel. The decline was also driven by investors reducing positions ahead of the long Eid al-Fitr holiday. Investors are advised to remain cautious amid escalating global tensions and highly volatile oil prices, while adopting faster trading rhythms in line with market movements resembling a “kangaroo market.
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