Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : US stocks closed lower on Thursday as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. Market sentiment was also pressured by a decline in semiconductor stocks following reports that the Trump administration is drafting regulations to restrict global shipments of AI chips.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 6,829.45, the NASDAQ Composite slipped 0.3% to 22,748.99, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% to 47,954.19. In the previous session, major indices had gained on the back of solid economic data and reports suggesting Iran was open to dialogue.
However, hopes for easing tensions faded after Iran launched another missile attack on Israel, marking the sixth day of the conflict. The US Senate also rejected a proposal to halt the air campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, the White House named Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran’s supreme leader, as a strong candidate to succeed the leadership after the leader’s death, signaling that Iran is unlikely to quickly yield to pressure.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the conflict is testing the resilience of the global economy as it could affect energy prices, market sentiment, inflation, and economic growth. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the US is preparing rules requiring government approval for nearly all exports of AI chips from companies such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, significantly expanding restrictions that currently apply to about 40 countries.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed lower after earlier gains, as market sentiment remained fragile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Germany’s DAX fell 1.6%, France’s CAC 40 declined 1.5%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 also dropped 1.5%. The conflict, which began with missile strikes by the US and Israel against Iran last weekend, has expanded further, including reports of an Iranian warship sunk by a US submarine and Iranian missiles intercepted by NATO defense systems.
The International Monetary Fund again warned that prolonged conflict could push global energy prices higher and increase inflation. This is a particular concern for Europe, which heavily depends on energy imports and could face pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said the inflation impact would be limited if the conflict ends quickly, but persistently high energy prices could raise inflation and weaken economic activity. Another ECB official, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said there is currently no reason to raise interest rates. Economic data showed eurozone retail sales rose 2.0% YoY in February, beating expectations of 1.7%, although they slipped 0.1% month-on-month.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks rose on Thursday, signaling a temporary recovery in risk appetite after pressure from escalating Middle East tensions. The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Index climbed 3.9%, led by South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 11.2% after sharp losses in the previous session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also gained 2.5%. In the bond market, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 3.9 bps to 4.121%, while the 30- year yield increased 4.4 bpsto 4.7607%, reflecting falling bond prices.
Chinese stocks also advanced after Beijing set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly below last year’s roughly 5% growth. The government also released the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing investment in innovation, high-tech industries, and stronger household consumption.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday, extending the rally as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupted energy supply and shipping routes. Brent Crude rose US$2.25 (2.8%) to US$83.65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased US$2.56 (3.4%) to US$77.22 per barrel. Prices were also supported by attacks on tankers in the Gulf region and China’s decision to reduce fuel exports. The prolonged conflict has also forced several refineries in the Middle East, China, and India to scale back crude processing operations.
• TANKER CRISIS: Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf region continue. The Bahamasflagged tanker Sonangol Namibe reportedly suffered hull damage after an explosion near Khor al Zubair Port, Iraq. Ship-tracking data from Vortexa and Kpler shows around 300 tankers remain in the Strait of Hormuz, while vessel traffic entering and leaving the chokepoint has nearly halted since the conflict began.
• INDONESIA : The JCI rebounded 1.76% to 7,710.5, led by gains in the primary consumer goods sector, supported by improving sentiment in global markets. However, investors should remain cautious as global tensions persist. Commodity-related stocks are expected to remain a key trading theme throughout the year, supported by rising prices of oil, gold, and nickel. Maintaining strict stop-loss and trailing stop strategies is advisable amid ongoing market volatility.
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