XA Update Report | PT Avia Avian Tbk. (AVIA) – A Sky Full of Colors: AVIA’s Volume Breakout Year
By Leonardo Lijuwardi (Senior Research Analyst)
03-Mar-2026
AVIA closed FY25 solidly, with net profit growth of +4.85% YoY to IDR 1.74T due to strong sales volume (FY24: IDR 1.66T | Quarterly basis: +36.7% QoQ & +10.4% YoY, 4Q25: IDR 556B, 3Q25: IDR 407B, 4Q24: IDR 503B) and surpassing our estimation (102% of NHKSI Estimation for FY25). AVIA’s sales growth continued to increase by +8.7% YoY to IDR 8.12T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 7.47T | Quarterly basis: +7.5% QoQ & +6.3% YoY, 4Q24: IDR 2.07T, 3Q25: IDR 2.04T), in line with management. Although 4Q25 ASP was slightly down, strong volume growth lifted AVIA’s earnings, driving NPM increased to 25.3% (vs 3Q25: 19.9% and 4Q24: 24.4%). Despite a challenging demand and competition in the building materials sector, AVIA remains resilient in the paint & coating industry. We maintain “Buy” Rating for AVIA with unchanged target price at IDR 560/share (Average last 3 years – PE Standard Deviation with +31.5% Potential Upside).
🔹 4Q25 & FY25 Performance: Driven by Strong Sales Volume Growth
• Strong Growth in Paint and Coatings Sales Volume in 4Q25. Architectural segment remains as base contributor, which increased by +5.0% YoY to IDR 1.68 T in 4Q25 (4Q24: IDR 1.6T | Quarterly basis: +8.3% QoQ & +5.0% YoY, 3Q25: IDR 1.55T), while trading goods posted at IDR 515B (+4.9% QoQ, +10.5% YoY), bringing 4Q25 total revenue to IDR 2.2T (+6.3% YoY). This growth performance was driven by strong sales volume growth in architectural segment at 50,425 MT (+9.5% QoQ, +5.9% YoY), thanks to strong positioning and 2% market share gains (based on management estimates). Cumulatively, FY25 sales volume reached 184,785 MT (+7.42% YoY), in line with management guidance (AVIA management guidance for Volume growth: +7-9%).
• Trading goods remains robust, but margin still pressured. The trading goods segment recorded sales of IDR 1.83T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 1.62T | Quarterly basis: +10.5% YoY; +4.9% QoQ, 4Q24: IDR 466B, 3Q25: IDR 491B & 4Q25: IDR 515B), contributing 22.5% of total sales. However, margin pressure persists, with gross margin easing to 17.6% in 4Q25 (vs. 3Q25: 18.4%, 2Q25: 21%) and 18% in FY25 (FY24: 21%). Still, the trading goods maintained at ~20% of total sales, helping to cushion the impact on overall margins.
🔹 Strong Cost Management Sustains Margin
• AVIA’s cost management has effectively maintained the overall margin. Despite ongoing promotion to drive sales volume growth, AVIA successfully maintained cost efficiency, with sales & marketing expense easing to 17% in FY25 (vs FY24: 17.6%). The architectural segment recorded 4Q25 gross margin improvement at 56% and 52% in FY25 (3Q25: 50.2%, 4Q24: 52.3%, FY24: 51.2%) with overall cost maintained at stable level. Amid USD/IDR depreciation pressuring production costs, AVIA implemented two price hikes to support margin, resulting in stable FY25 margin.
🔹 FY26 Performance Estimate – Cautious but Keep Optimistic
• The third Cirebon plant start to run production in 1H26F. Management noted that within the first year, initial production capacity is estimated at ~100k MT/year, with gradual ramp-up and utilization maintained at 65%–70%. Additionally, the Cirebon plant has absorbed 66% of the total allocated capex. We expect that this plant should support to cover more of the West Java area and improving the production of AVIA’s water-based products.
• Cautious FY26 guidance with an optimistic view. Management targets 6%-10% in sales growth with +4%-8% in sales volume. We estimate AVIA sales at FY26 to reach IDR 8.77T (+7.9% YoY) and the net profit of FY26 at IDR 1.79T (+2.9%).
🔹 Recommendation “Buy” at Level IDR 560 / Share (Potential Upside +31.5%)
• NHKSI Research maintain its recommendation “Buy” rating for AVIA with the unchanged target price of IDR 560 / Share, which implies an 18.1x Forward-PE 2026 (Average Last 3 Years). Despite the economic slowdown, particularly the contraction in purchasing power, along with the still sluggish and weak building materials sector, AVIA’s performance is quite resilient, as shown by the increase in market share and sales volume, controlled and efficient cost structure, strong balance sheet and distribution network expansion, providing a strong foundation for better profitability. AVIA’s valuation is still quite attractive considering its position as a market leader in Indonesia’s paint and coatings industry and is discounted compared to other global players in similar industries.
• The risks for AVIA include Rupiah depreciation, which could elevate the prices of some raw materials; the still-weak purchasing power of the public; the highly competitive paint and coatings industry especially in the wall-paint segment; and the macroeconomic situation is not yet conducive.
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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
