Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed mixed on Monday, completing a solid rebound after weakening earlier in the session. Gains in energy and technology stocks helped offset negative sentiment triggered by U.S. air strikes on Iran. The benchmark S&P 500 edged up to 6,879.33 after having fallen as much as 1.2%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite gained 0.4% to 22,748.86, reversing a 1.6% decline. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly by 0.2% to 48,904.78.
The developments marked a major escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran, particularly after the latest talks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment ended without meaningful progress. Markets are now gripped by fears of an all-out war in the Middle East, especially after Iran vowed further retaliation. President Donald Trump said the operation had four objectives: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, crippling its navy, ensuring the country never acquires nuclear weapons, and preventing Iran’s government from arming, funding, and directing terrorist activities.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks tumbled sharply on Monday as global risk appetite slumped following large-scale attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, fueling concerns over rising energy prices. Germany’s DAX closed down 2.4%, France’s CAC 40 fell 2.2%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped 1.2%.
The U.S. and Israeli attacks disrupted commercial shipping routes in the Persian Gulf, a key source of fuel and petroleum products for Europe. The disruption pushed energy prices higher and raised the risk of a further surge in inflation. This is expected to cloud the policy outlook for the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, potentially forcing the latter to delay further interest rate cuts until geopolitical uncertainty eases.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian equities plunged sharply on Monday following weekend attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. The strikes sent oil prices soaring and triggered a broad flight from riskier assets into safer havens.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei 225 were among the worst performers in Asia, falling 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively. Both were also weighed down by losses in technology stocks. Japan’s TOPIX declined 1.6%, while China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
Asian markets were further pressured by declines in technology shares amid ongoing investor uncertainty over AI’s impact on the sector. Software stocks, in particular, suffered significant losses in February due to concerns over intensifying competition from AI-based tools.
In China, market attention is focused on the annual “two sessions” political meetings scheduled for March 4–11, which will set the agenda for the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan. Beijing is widely expected to announce additional stimulus measures, especially given the steady slowdown in China’s economic growth throughout the 2020s. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data released on Friday raised concerns about persistent inflation in the world’s largest economy, potentially keeping interest rates higher for longer.
• COMMODITIES: Oil and gas prices surged sharply on Monday in New York following Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. In retaliation, Tehran forced the shutdown of several oil and gas facilities across the region and disrupted shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could drive a sustained rise in oil prices, which in turn may fuel inflation, weigh on global economic growth, and push up U.S. retail gasoline prices.
Brent futures surged as much as 13% to USD 82.37 per barrel—the highest level since January 2025—before settling down USD 4.87, or 6.7%, at USD 77.74 per barrel. The post-close spike came after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it intended to set fire to any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz late Monday. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at USD 71.23, up USD 4.21, or 6.3%. Earlier, WTI had surged more than 12% to USD 75.33, its highest level since June.
While the initial oil price spike was less dramatic than some analysts had projected, Iran’s retaliatory attacks on other major energy-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar have fueled fears that a prolonged and drawn-out conflict could result in additional supply disruptions.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed lower at 8,016.83, as markets digested the aggressive actions taken by Israel and the U.S. against Iran. Amid these developments, investors are advised to implement hedging strategies and remain positioned in commodityrelated stocks, which are expected to be a key trading theme throughout the year alongside rising prices of oil, gold, and nickel. Following breakouts in oil and gas prices, coal prices have also begun to break out, potentially opening room for gains in coal stocks. Investors are reminded to remain cautious by consistently applying tight stop-loss and trailing-stop strategies amid heightened volatility.
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