Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed sharply lower on Monday after a Supreme Court ruling rejecting President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs triggered market turmoil. Software stocks also came under pressure following the release of a report highlighting risks from the rapid development of AI. The S&P 500 fell 1% to 6,838.95, the NASDAQ dropped 1.1% to 22,627.27, and the Dow Jones plunged 1.7% to 48,804.06. In the previous week, markets had advanced, supported by the Supreme Court decision and easing concerns over a potential U.S. strike on Iran. Trump said he would raise temporary import tariffs to 15% from 10% for up to 150 days. Several trading partners are seeking clarification or renegotiation, while the Fed said it is still too early to determine the impact on inflation. Software stocks were weighed down by a Citrini Research report on the potential disruption of AI to white-collar jobs; a software sector ETF fell to its lowest level since November 2023.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks were mostly lower due to uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, compounded by a sharp drop in Novo Nordisk shares following negative news from an obesity drug trial. Germany’s DAX fell 1.1%, the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1%, and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.2%. Even so, sentiment had previously improved, with the STOXX 600 briefly hitting a record high on the back of stronger earnings and improving economic data. Novo Nordisk shares fell more than 10% after its CagriSema drug failed to meet a key clinical trial endpoint.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets were mixed on Monday amid rising uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy. Trading volumes were relatively thin due to public holidays in China and Japan. Hong Kong stocks outperformed, driven by gains in technology and automotive shares, while South Korea hit a record high on a rally in chip stocks, particularly Samsung and SK Hynix.
The Hang Seng Index jumped 2.7%, the best performance in Asia, as bargain hunting followed sharp losses last week. Export-oriented stocks, especially those with U.S. exposure, performed strongly as markets bet on a more moderate U.S. tariff regime ahead. Meanwhile, South Korean markets were supported by optimism in the technology sector, with the KOSPI rising more than 1% to a record high.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices edged lower on Monday but remained near six-month highs. Markets stayed cautious ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, and amid rising global economic uncertainty following U.S. tariff volatility. Brent crude settled down 0.38% at USD 71.49 per barrel, while WTI fell 0.26% to USD 66.31 per barrel. Iran said it is ready to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Meanwhile, gold prices rose for a fifth consecutive session, extending last week’s gains. Newly announced global tariffs by Trump boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold climbed 2.1% to USD 5,211.34 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 2.9% to USD 5,230.59 per ounce. The gains were also supported by rising U.S.–Iran geopolitical tensions, which pushed investors further into risk-averse mode.
• INDONESIA : Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG) strengthened again, up 1.5% to 8,396.08. Fund flows today are still expected to favor the commodities sector, which is likely to remain a key trading theme this year, particularly oil in line with rising oil, gold, and nickel prices. Gold-related stocks are expected to gain today following the rise in global gold prices. Investors are advised to remain cautious by using stop-losses and tight trailing stops amid ongoing volatility.
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