XA Commodities Update | Gold Commodity Update (XAU/USD) — More Than Just An Accessory

 

By Ezaridho Ibnutama (Head of Research), Axell Ebenhaezer (Senior Research Analyst), Kevin Yudha Pratama (associate), Graceline Melinda (associate)

20-Feb-2026

 

 

 

We are maintaining our overweight rating for Gold with an End of Year Target of USD 6,000/oz. Continued elevated geopolitical tension along with an ever-changing global trade climate will likely see gold continue to be favored among investors as a safe haven asset class

 

 

 

🔹 1. Central Banks Being Bullish On Bullions

Refocusing On The Shiny Metal

• Racing to Hoard The Yellow Metal. Central Banks (CB) around the globe have increased their holdings on gold in the past decade. Since 2015, The Fed alone has increased its holding on gold by 10.53% CAGR; it now sits on USD 682.3 bn in gold reserves. Hastening to increase its stash of bullion, Russia and China’s central banks have shown 16.84% and 13.73% CAGR 2015-2025, respectively, in its gold reserves.

 

 

• Gold Munition On CB Holdings. As The Fed has breached above 50% in gold reserves, BRICS CB’s are beginning to embrace the shiny metal while inactive in maintaining its forex reserves. One instance is China’s CB posted a 25.42% CAGR 2020-2023 in its reserve, with a 14.13% CAGR 2014-2023.

 

 

 

🔹 2. Global Stagnation Of Production

Shimmering As A Value Investment, Production Grinding Down

• Global gold mine production has reached a new high of 3,671.6 tonnes in 2025 – a marginal increase of ~1% YoY. Global gold mine production has grinded to a snails-pace with a CAGR of 1.16% CAGR 2018—2025. Despite global gold demand volume had a mere 0.51% CAGR 2018—2025, gold’s demand value experienced a 13.48% CAGR 2018—2025; the price surge was driven mainly by investment-centered purchases of gold which oversaw 84% YoY increase to 2,175.3 tonnes in 2025.

 

 

 

🔹 3. Indonesia’s Gold Industry Outlook

Melting Away Production

• Indonesian gold production has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels due to several operational and policy complications. 2025 production volume is likewise expected to remain stagnant, with Indonesia’s biggest gold mine Grasberg stopping production in Sep 2025 following a massive landslide. *2026 could very well see a slight recovery in production volume* with the resumption of Grasberg operations and the commencement of Merdeka Group’s Pani gold project. However, the revocation of United Tractor’s Martabe mine license and the sluggish progress of their Doup project could prevent a stronger rebound in domestic gold production.

 

 

 

🔹 4. Indonesians Sticking To Gold As Assets

Gold As A Highly Preferred Asset Class, Incentivized Saving

• In a survey done by The World Gold Council, more than ~65% of respondents stated net gold as a preferred asset class and ~43% cited fine gold jewelry. ~15% stated Gold ETFs to be a preferrable option, and ~18% prefer other gold securities. This attachment of Indonesians to gold as an asset class hints at a possible incentivization of saving in the value-retaining metal commodity rather than spending. As CD rates in Indonesia have placed at 3.5%, we view gold’s rising purchase trend is one of the key contributors to the country’s waning consumptive trends. All the while, average wage growth among Indonesians have been stable since the pandemic-era.

 

 

Riding High On Golden Gains

• Compared to other asset classes within reach for Indonesian investors, gold is the top performing with 44% gains in 2025. It is the second consecutive year when gold has outperformed other asset classes such as Asia (Ex-Japan) equities, Global equities, Indonesia, equities, Indonesian bonds, Global bonds, US Treasuries, and commodities; in 2024, gold’s price surged 33%. *We are of the view Indonesian gold holders are still bullish on bullion.* Therefore, individuals’ capital may continue to experience inflow into gold—further stagnating local consumption.

 

 

 

🔹 5. Top Gold Stock Picks

Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM)

• ANTM benefits from rising domestic gold supply, supporting medium–long term production growth. With Grasberg resuming in 2Q26, ANTM’s supply chain is expected to recover to pre-landslide levels by year-end, with imports covering short-term gaps. Strong investment demand supports Antam-branded gold, while nickel exposure provides a hedge against gold volatility. New RKEF (2027) and HPAL (2028) smelters strengthen future earnings. TP: IDR 4,600, implying PE 13.7x and EV/EBITDA 11.5x (annualized FY25).

 

 

Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS)

• EMAS owns one of APAC’s largest undeveloped gold assets with 7.0Moz resources and 4.8Moz reserves, targeting 500koz peak production by 2029 at an average grade of 0.75 g/t. 2026 production is 145koz with 7Mtpa heap leach capacity. The Pani mine is projected to be first-quartile globally on cash costs, potentially as low as USD 1,070/oz over the next three years. TP: IDR 9,500, implying EV/resources USD 1,188/oz and EV/reserves USD 1,700/oz.

 

 

 

🔹 Maintain Overweight with an End of Year Target at USD 6,000 / oz.

• We are maintaining our overweight rating for Gold with an End of Year Target of USD 6,000 / oz.  Continued elevated geopolitical tension along with an ever-changing global trade climate will likely see gold continue to be favored among investors as a safe haven asset class. Demand among retail & institutional investors as well as CBs is expected to remain high, with forecasted Fed rate cuts also likely to push gold prices upwards.

 

 

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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id