Today’s Outlook:

• The S&P 500 rose Tuesday, clawing back into positive territory for the year, as investors extended the sharp gains seen in the previous session due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions. The broad market index gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4%, aided by a more than 5% rise in shares of Nvidia. Meta Platforms was also among Tuesday’s outperformers, rising more than 2%, along with Netflix. Amazon shares were also up 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, losing 171 points, or 0.4%. However, Wall Street got a reprieve this week after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff pause earlier this week. The news sent stocks surging on Monday, with the Dow soaring more than 1,000 points. Additionally, US CPI was softer than expected as it increased 2.3% on an annualized basis on april (economist expected : 2.4%)

• FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY: The 10-year Treasury yield was up less than 1 basis point at 4.467%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell 1.4 basis points to 3.988%. The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield was near the flatline on Tuesday after inflation data showed a slightly cooler than expected reading for April. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.58% to 101.20, with the euro up 0.71% at $1.1166. The greenback rallied more than 1% in the prior session on optimism a tariff deal between the United States and China. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.38% to 147.88, after rallying more than 2% in the prior session as the risk-on mood dented the appetite for safe-haven assets. The greenback weakened 0.45% to 0.8414 against the Swiss franc after climbing 1.6% on Monday. The dollar edged up 0.04% to 7.2012 versus the offshore Chinese yuan, after falling to a six-month low of 7.1779. A rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) is now seen as likely at the central bank’s September meeting, compared with the prior view for a cut at the July meeting, according to LSEG data. About 51 bps of cuts are now being priced in for 2025

• EUROPE: European stock markets traded in positive territory on Tuesday as uncertainty over the global trade outlook lingers despite a 90-day pause in the tariff spat between the U.S. and China. The pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.2% higher in London, extending gains seen the previous day when markets rallied after news that Washington and Beijing agreed to slash steep tariffs for 90 days.

• ASIA: Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, with the Hang Seng Index declining 1.87% — sharpest drop in nearly a month — to close at 23,108.27. Indian markets fell with the benchmark Nifty 50 down 1.27% while the BSE Sensex lost 1.49%. , following optimism over the India—Pakistan ceasefire. Over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 pared gains to 1.43% to end the day at 38,183.26. This marks the benchmark’s fourth consecutive positive session. Meanwhile, the broader Topix index advanced 1.10% to 2,772.14, making this its 13th straight day of gains. South Korea’s Kospi closed flat at 2,608.42 while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.89% to 731.88. AsiaPacific markets traded mixed Tuesday, following Wall Street’s massive rally on the back of a trade deal between the U.S. and China, which includes a 90-day pause on tariffs and a drop in reciprocal tariffs by 115 percentage points.

• COMMODITIES: Gold prices rose on Tuesday on bargain-hunting after a sharp loss in the previous day, while softer-than-expected inflation data from the U.S. also lent support. Gold prices rose 0.67% to $3,255.24 an ounce, after falling as low as $3,207.30 on Monday. U.S. gold futures were up 0.69% at $3,250. Bullion had shattered multiple record highs in 2025, owing to concerns over economic slowdown following U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and increased flow into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, with gains capped by rising supplies and caution over whether the pause in the U.S.-China trade war will lead to a longer-term deal. Global oil prices gained 74 cents, or 1.14%, to $65.70 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 80 cents, or about 1.29%, at $62.75. Reduced refining capacity – mostly in the U.S. and Europe – is tightening gasoline and diesel balances, increasing reliance on imports and raising susceptibility to price spikes during maintenance and unplanned outages.

• JCI was stable by 0.07% on Friday before the long weekend. A majority of market participants anticipate a bullish opening gap as the markets open on Wednesday with US-China relations improving and with Trump’s trade war cooling down. However, we view the cooling down of tensions to be priced-in by JCI. While JCI has the potential to reach and penetrate above the 7000 resistance, it would be difficult to sustain above the zone as Net Foreign Sell for the past 1 month has been IDR 19.49 tn. With April-2025 US inflation rate stood below expectations at 2.3% and core inflation rate stagnant at 2.8% sending lukewarm reactions across global markets, The Fed is highly speculated to kick the can down the road until Sep-2025 for a rate cut with an even higher for longer strategy to await the ramifications of Trump’s short-lived trade war to the US economy. The current USD/IDR exchange rate has weakened back to the 16,500-16,600.

Company News

• AGII: Dropped 37%, Samator’s Profit Remains IDR105 Billion at the End of 2024
• PRDA: 82% Slump, Earns IDR 6.F Billion in 1Q25
• ULTJ: Ultrajaya Declares IDR 468M Cum Dividend

Domestic & Global News
Chandra Asri’s New Investment Interfered by Thugs
Trump Pushes Fed Boss to Cut Interest Rates

Download full report HERE.