Today’s Outlook:

• Global stock indexes slumped on Friday (25/10/24), ending the week lower, on US Election fears, while Oil prices rose on concerns about fighting in the Middle East. The benchmark S&P 500 index ended flat and closed the week down nearly 1%, as losses in the Utilities and Financials sectors were partially offset by gains in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. The Nasdaq ended the week in positive territory. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61% to 42,114.40, the S&P 500 edged down 0.03%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.56%. The latest ECONOMIC INDICATORS revealed that Durable Goods Orders for Sept still fell by the same magnitude of minus 0.8% as Aug. Despite the contraction, the figure was better than the -1.1% forecast. On the other hand, Univ. Of Michigan has more optimism on Consumer Expectations & Sentiment going forward, even they see economic conditions starting this Oct has also improved. Their US Inflation Expectations for the next 1 year & 5 years range from 2.7% – 3.0%.

• U.S. POLITICAL MAP: Former Republican President DONALD TRUMP and Democratic Vice President KAMALA HARRIS are neck-andneck in key states ahead of the November 5 election. Investors are nervous about the outcome which is expected to shake world markets and create new geopolitical uncertainties. Chief investment officers consider that the market is still somewhat uncertain and partly due to the fact that the US market has gained 6 consecutive weeks and posted gains 10 out of 11 months this year. Historically, volatility in election years tends to spike in October, with market participants now nervous ahead of the key date. On Sunday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump led a rally at Madison Square Garden, New York; in an effort to boost the electability of Republican candidates in the New York congressional elections. The state has seven competitive seats that could help determine whether the party will have a majority in the US House of Representatives next year. The event could also bolster Trump’s support particularly in northeastern Pennsylvania, a battleground state increasingly home to New York commuters.

• FIXED INCOME & CURRENCY: US TREASURY YIELD edged higher as investors await next week’s key employment data for fresh clues on the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Traders estimate the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting at nearly 95%, according to CME FedWatch. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose 3.8 basis points to 4.24%.

– THE DOLLAR strengthened and is poised for a fourth weekly gain against the Japanese YEN, as an uncertain market backdrop kept the Yen near a 3-month low ahead of the general election in Japan over the weekend. The Dollar gained 0.26% against the Yen at 152.22. The Euro was down 0.29% at USD 1.0796. The DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies including the Yen and Euro, rose 0.24% to 104.30.

• EUROPEAN & ASIAN MARKETS: European stock indices closed down 0.03% after losing gains in volatile trading and ended 1.2% lower for the week. Overnight in Asia, MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan closed lower by 0.02% but fell nearly 2% over the week.

– The GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE index shed light on expectations of a more optimistic business climate in the next 6 months.

• COMMODITIES: On Friday, BRENT crude oil closed up 2.25% at USD 76.05/barrel. US WTI crude oil closed up 2.27% to USD 71.78. Both crude oil futures ended last week with gains of around 4%. However, this quickly reversed on Monday. Oil prices plummeted nearly USD 4/barrel this morning after the world received reports that ISRAEL’S retaliatory strikes on IRAN over the weekend missed Tehran’s oil and nuclear infrastructure, thereby not disrupting energy supplies, thus easing GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT in the Middle East. At the time of writing, BRENT crude oil prices have slipped USD 3.89, or 5.1%, to USD 72.16/barrel, while US WTI  crude oil is priced at USD 68.02/barrel, a drop of USD 3.76, or 5.2%.

– GOLD prices rose in directionless trade after dropping from record highs. Spot gold rose 0.28% to USD 2,743.31/ounce. Prices had reached an all-time high of USD 2,758.37 on Wednesday. Portfolio managers assess that in the short term, there is no doubt that the market is being swayed by political developments and expectations, as well as the general perception that Trump will be more market friendly than Harris.

• JCI closed last week with a loss of 21.88 pts / -0.28% to 7694.66, as it was hit again by Foreign Net Sell of IDR 843.92bn (RG market). This position made JCI slipped back below MA10 Support or 7710 level which is crucial to climb back up if we want to maintain JCI uptrend. Thus, NHKSI RESEARCH is forced to remind investors/traders again of the potential for further consolidation to the next Support: MA50 & MA20 in the range: 7660 – 7620 as a safety cushion before heading lower towards 7550.

Company News

• PNBN: PaninBank Boss Reveals Third Quarter Profit Drop 18.9 Percent
• PANI: Favorable Market, PANI Raises Marketing Sales Target to IDR 6 Trillion
• PGEO: Almost Stagnant, PGEO Recorded Profit of USD133.99 Million in 3Q24

Domestic & Global News
SRIL: Prabowo Orders to Support Sritex
Chasing 5% Economic Growth, China Focuses on Boosting Domestic Demand

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