XA Update Report | PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. (BMRI) – Resilient Amid Pressures – FY26 to Preserve Stability with a More Conservative Stance

 

By Leonardo Lijuwardi (Senior Research Analyst)

05-Mar-2026

 

BMRI posted 4Q25 net profit of IDR 18.6T (+34.9% YoY & +39.8% QoQ), bringing total FY25 net profit to IDR 56.3T (+0.92% YoY). BMRI’s FY25 Net Interest Margin (NIM) contracted to 4.89% (FY24: 5.15% | Quarterly basis: 4Q24: 5.2%, 3Q25: 4.8%, 4Q25: 4.9%). Net profit performance was supported by Net Interest Income (NII), which grew +4.4% YoY to IDR 106.2T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 101.8T | Quarterly basis: +8.0% QoQ & +2.9% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 27.2T, 3Q25: IDR 25.9T, 4Q25: IDR 27.9T), alongside Non-Interest Income growth of +14.5% YoY to IDR 48.47T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 42.3T | Quarterly basis: +23.6% QoQ & +32.0% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 11.53T, 3Q25: IDR 12.31T, 4Q25: IDR 15.22T). The Non-Interest Income growth was largely driven by solid recurring fee income, both from digital and non-digital channels. Operating expenses increased +15.2% YoY to IDR 67.6T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 58.6T | Quarterly basis: +2.48% QoQ & -5.8% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 18.77T, 3Q25: IDR 17.25T, 4Q25: IDR 17.68T). Consequently, PPOP (Pre-Provision Operating Profit) declined slightly by -0.39% YoY to IDR 87.64T (FY24: IDR 87.98T | Quarterly basis: +21.6% QoQ & +21.8% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 21.13T, 3Q25: IDR 21.17T, 4Q25: IDR 25.74T

 

 

 

🔹 FY26 Performance Outlook: Moderating Loan Growth and NIM in Line with Easing Interest Rates

 

• FY26 Guidance – Normalized Loan Growth with Softer NIM Trajectory.. Management guides FY26 NIM at 4.6%–4.8%, more moderate compared to FY25 (4.8%–5.0%). The anticipated NIM compression aligns with lower benchmark interest rates and a more conservative loan growth target of 7%–9% in FY26 (FY25: 8%–10%), while maintaining LDR below 95%. In line with this guidance, we forecast loan growth of +7.1% in FY26, with LDR remaining within management’s target range and net profit increasing +4.6% YoY to IDR 58.9T in FY26.

 

 

 

🔹 Lending Side: FY25 Loan Growth Surpassed Upper-End of Management Guidance

 

• BMRI’s loan disbursement grew +13.4% YoY and +7.4% QoQ to IDR 1,895T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 1,671T | 9M25: IDR 1,764T), exceeding the upper bound of management’s FY25 guidance of 8%–10%.

 

 

•  Corporate Loans Remained the Primary Growth Engine. Loan expansion was predominantly driven by business banking, particularly the corporate segment, which surged +23.1% YoY & +14.6% QoQ to IDR 764T (FY24: IDR 620T | 9M25: IDR 667T), while the commercial segment grew +12.1% YoY & +4.3% QoQ to IDR 328T (FY24: IDR 293T | 9M25: IDR 315T). Meanwhile, the SME segment declined -2.09% YoY but rose +1.3% QoQ to IDR 85T (FY24: IDR 87T | 9M25: IDR 84T).

 

 

• Consumer Loans Grew Relatively Flat Throughout FY25. The personal banking/consumer segment recorded modest growth of +1.3% YoY & +1.6% QoQ to IDR 124T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 122T | 9M25: IDR 123T). The softer growth reflects weaker consumption trends, dampened demand, and tighter, more selective underwriting standards. Despite near-term weakness, management expects a recovery trajectory in FY26 as domestic demand gradually improves.

 

 

 

🔹 Funding Side: Strengthening Liquidity Throughout FY25 with Easing CoF and LDR Trends

 

• Liquidity Expansion Remained Solid. On the funding side, BMRI continued to build strong deposit growth. Third-party funds (DPK) rose +23.9% YoY & +11.8% QoQ to IDR 2,106T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 1,699T | 9M25: IDR 1,884T). CASA increased +12.6% YoY & +9.69% QoQ to IDR 1,431T (FY24: IDR 1,271T | 9M25: IDR 1,304T), while time deposits surged +57.7% YoY & +16.4% QoQ to IDR 674.4T (FY24: IDR 579T), resulting in a decline in CASA ratio to 68% in FY25 (FY24: 74.8%).

 

 

• Easing CoF Helped Cushion Loan Yield Compression. In line with the QoQ increase in time deposits, BMRI’s Bank-only CoF rose to 2.33% in FY25 (FY24: 2.16%). However, on a quarterly basis, CoF declined to 2.15% in 4Q25 from 2.31% in 3Q25. The QoQ decline was mainly driven by lower CoF from time deposits and current accounts, down -36 bps and -40 bps QoQ, respectively. This improvement partially offset loan yield compression amid declining policy rates, helping maintain relatively stable NIM.

 

 

 

🔹 BMRI Asset Quality: Healthy and Stable Asset Quality Maintained

 

• Asset Quality Remained Sound. NPL ratio stayed manageable at 1.13% in FY25 (FY24: 1.12% | 9M25: 1.19%), with strong coverage at 231%. LAR declined to 6.51% in FY25 (FY24: 6.76% | 9M25: 6.48%).

 

 

• Provision Expenses Declined in 4Q25 and FY25. Provision expenses declined -72.8% QoQ & -63.8% YoY to IDR 867B in 4Q25, while FY25 provisions fell -5.01% YoY to IDR 11.33T (FY24: IDR 11.93T). CoC stood at 0.58% in FY25, at the lower end of management guidance. For FY26, management targets CoC at 0.6%–0.8%, reflecting a measured normalization of provisioning costs, supported by an expected stabilization in LAR.

 

 

 

🔹 “Overweight” Recommendation at Level IDR 5,600 / Share (Upside Potential +12.5%)

 

• NHKSI Research maintains an “Overweight” call on BMRI with a revised TP of IDR 5,600, implying 1.45x 26F P/BV (-1 STD from the 3-year average). Potential catalysts include stronger-than-expected loan growth and profitability metrics, particularly NIM resilience. While NIM is likely to normalize amid easing rates, operational performance—supported by sustained non-interest income growth—should continue to underpin earnings stability. Key downside risks include macroeconomic and political uncertainties, intensifying competition within the banking sector, and weaker-than-expected loan growth or NIM realization.

 

 

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