XA Update Report | PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk. (BBNI) — FY25: Liquidity Strengthening First, Asset Quality Remains Stable, But Profits Remain Under Pressure

 

By Leonardo Lijuwardi

27-Feb-2026

 

 

 

BBNI recorded a net profit contraction of -6.6% YoY to IDR 20.0T in FY25, mainly due to higher provisioning expenses as management adopted a more conservative stance, particularly in 4Q25 (FY24: IDR 21.5T | Quarterly basis: -1.9% QoQ & -4.4% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 5.11T, 3Q25: IDR 5.02T & 4Q25: IDR 4.93T). Net Interest Margin (NIM) in FY25 compressed to 3.8% (FY24: 4.2% | Quarterly basis: 4Q24: 4.5%, 3Q25: 3.6% & 4Q25: 3.9%). BBNI’s net profit performance was supported by relatively stable Net Interest Income (NII), which declined slightly by -0.4% YoY to IDR 40.3T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 40.5T | Quarterly basis: +13.8% QoQ & +0.3% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 11.0T, 3Q25: IDR 9.74T & 4Q25: IDR 11.1T), as well as continued growth in NonInterest Income of +5.2% YoY to IDR 24.6T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 23.4T | Quarterly basis: +11.2% QoQ & +5.1% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 7.03T, 3Q25: IDR 6.65T & 4Q25: IDR 7.39T), which helped offset the pressure from NIM compression. The growth in Non-Interest Income was largely supported by recurring income from fees & commissions and higher trading income. Operating expenses increased at a moderate pace of +6.0% YoY to IDR 30.9T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 29.1T | Quarterly basis: +14.7% QoQ & +5.5% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 8.55T, 3Q25: IDR 7.87T & 4Q25: IDR 9.02T). Consequently, Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) declined -6.6% YoY to IDR 34.12T (FY24: IDR 34.78T | Quarterly basis: +10.9% QoQ & -0.8% YoY | 4Q24: IDR 9.52T, 3Q25: IDR 8.52T & 4Q25: IDR 9.45T).

 

 

 

 

🔹 Lending Side: Loan Disbursement in FY25 In Line with Guidance – Additional Growth from Kopdes – Agrinas Program

 

• BBNI’s loan disbursement grew +15.9% YoY and +10.8% QoQ to IDR 899.5T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 775.9T | 9M25: IDR 812.2T), reflecting solid credit expansion momentum throughout the year. This growth remains broadly aligned with management’s FY25 guidance of 8–10%, considering that part of the expansion was driven by specific SOE-related lending booked toward year-end. For FY26, management has indicated a similar loan growth range of 8–10%. We project FY26 loan growth at +9.4% YoY, supported by continued resilience in the corporate segment and government-linked programs such as Kopdes Merah Putih.

 

 

• Corporate Loans Remain the Key Driver. Loan growth was primarily contributed by the business banking segment, especially Corporate loans, which grew +20.1% YoY & +15.0% QoQ to IDR 518.2T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 431.4T | 9M25: IDR 450.7T), and the Middle segment, which increased +19.9% YoY & +10.1% QoQ to IDR 131.8T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 109.9T | 9M25: IDR 119.7T). Meanwhile, SME loans declined -0.9% YoY & grew +1.2% QoQ to IDR 75.1T in FY25. As an additional note, excluding the spike in SOE corporate loans booked in December 2025 & 4Q25, particularly BUMN – Agrinas loans under the Kopdes Merah Putih program, total FY25 loan growth would have been +10.0% YoY, with the related loans carrying a yield of approximately 6%.

 

 

• Consumer Loans Relatively Stable Throughout FY25. The personal banking / consumer loan segment grew +4.0% QoQ and +9.6% YoY to IDR 156.2T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 142.5T | 9M25: IDR 150.2T).

 

 

 

🔹 Funding Side: Liquidity Strengthened Throughout FY25 with CoF Trend Easing in 4Q25

 

• Improving Liquidity. Positive momentum was also reflected on the funding and liquidity front, as BBNI continued to record strong deposit growth. Total deposits (DPK) increased +29.2% YoY and +11.4% QoQ to IDR 1,041T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 805.5T | 9M25: IDR 934T). CASA grew robustly by +28.9% YoY & +18.4% QoQ to IDR 726T, while Time Deposits declined -30.0% YoY & -1.9% QoQ to IDR 314.9T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 242T | 9M25: IDR 321T), reflecting an improved funding mix. The CASA Ratio stood at 69.7% in FY25 (FY24: 69.9% | 9M25: 65.6%), indicating sustained liquidity strength. In line with this improvement, Cost of Funds (CoF) declined to 2.46% in 4Q25, from 2.93% in 3Q25, primarily driven by a -75 bps QoQ reduction in Time Deposit CoF to 4.2% in 4Q25.

 

 

 

🔹 BBNI Asset Quality: Stable Assets & More Conservative Provisioning in 2H25 – 4Q25

 

• Asset Quality Remains Well Maintained. The NPL ratio remained stable at 1.9% in FY25 (FY24: 2.0% | 9M25: 2.0%), while Loan at Risk (LAR) improved to 8.5% in FY25 (FY24: 10.3% | 9M25: 10.4%), indicating better overall risk metrics. The Cost of Credit (CoC) stood at 1.2% in FY25 (FY24: 1.1%), slightly elevated due to additional provisioning in 2H25.

 

 

• BBNI increased provisioning expenses significantly in 4Q25, rising +54.4% QoQ to IDR 3.6T, while full-year provisions grew +18.4% YoY to IDR 9.72T in FY25 (FY24: IDR 8.21T). This conservative measure was taken in response to weakening conditions caused by natural disasters in Sumatra toward the end of FY25 and continued sluggish retail business turnover. Management has guided FY26 CoC in the range of 1.0–1.2%, suggesting stable risk expectations going forward.

 

 

 

🔹 FY26 Performance Estimate: Relatively Stable Growth with NIM Compression

 

• Despite our expectation of continued loan growth in line with guidance and slightly more aggressive loan expansion in FY26, we anticipate BBNI’s NIM to further compress to 3.6% in FY26, reflecting lower loan yields amid a potentially easing interest rate environment and competitive pricing pressures. Nevertheless, supported by stable asset quality, improved funding structure, and controlled operating expenses, we estimate FY26 net profit to grow modestly by +3.1% to IDR 20.7T

 

 

 

🔹 Recommendation “Overweight” at Level IDR 5,050 / Share (Potential Upside +14.0%)

 

• NHKSI Research maintains a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of IDR 5,000, implying Forward 26F P/BV of 1.0x (in line with the 3-year historical average). Potential catalysts include stronger operational recovery, sustained loan growth momentum, and a more supportive NIM trajectory than currently anticipated. Key downside risks include macroeconomic and political uncertainties, intensif

 

 

 

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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id