Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks on Friday posted their best daily performance since May 2025, as volatility eased after a pressured week, particularly in the technology sector amid a repositioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed a historic milestone, closing above 50,000 for the first time, up 2.5% to 50,115.67. The S&P 500 rose 1.9% to 6,927.09 (its best day since May 27, 2025), while the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.2% to 23,031.21.
Technology stocks were under pressure this week due to concerns over heavy AI investment spending. Amazon and Alphabet added to these concerns with lofty capital expenditure guidance; Amazon expects USD 200 billion in capex in 2026, well above estimates of USD 146.11 billion.
Concerns over the U.S. economy also persisted. Challenger data showed January layoffs hit their highest level since the 2009 financial crisis. Weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, and December job openings data also missed expectations.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities closed higher on Friday, with attention on corporate earnings during a busy week that included key central bank meetings. Germany’s DAX rose 0.9%, France’s CAC 40 gained 0.4%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.6%.
The quarterly earnings season dominated sentiment. Stellantis shares slumped after the company announced charges of around EUR 22.2 billion as it pivots away from electric vehicles (EVs) amid weak demand.
On the macro front, German exports rose 4.0% m/m in December, beating forecasts of 1%, while industrial production fell 1.9% m/m, worse than expected—highlighting ongoing uncertainty around Germany’s economic recovery. The ECB and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian equities mostly declined on Friday amid continued pressure on technology stocks, while Japanese markets steadied after recent declines ahead of a national election over the weekend. Tech-heavy indices fell sharply, with South Korea’s KOSPI down 1.7% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipping 1.3%.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei surged to a record high on Monday, breaking above 56,000 for the first time in early trading after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in Sunday’s general election. The Nikkei 225 rose 3.4% to 56,083.14, while Topix climbed 2.5% to 3,792.05.
• COMMODITIES – OIL: Oil prices fell more than 1% at Monday’s open as concerns over a potential Middle East conflict between the U.S. and Iran eased after both countries concluded a round of talks on Friday. Brent fell 89 cents (-1.31%) to USD 67.16/bbl, while WTI dropped 79 cents (-1.24%) to USD 62.76/bbl.
Iran’s top diplomat said nuclear talks with the U.S., mediated by Oman, were off to a “good start” and would continue, helping to ease fears that a failure to reach a deal could push the region closer to war.
• INDONESIA :The JCI closed lower by 2.08% to 7,935.26, pressured by continued weakness in conglomerate-linked stocks. On the positive side, fundamentally strong consumer names and big banks remained stable, indicating possible accumulation by Danantara. For today, the market is likely to remain bearish following Moody’s downgrade of Indonesia’s outlook to Negative, despite the sovereign rating remaining at investmentgrade Baa2, which also weighed on major Indonesian large-cap stocks. However, with a gap-up setup and strength in regional markets, current levels may serve as JCI support. Investors should remain cautious, using tight stop-losses and trailing stops amid ongoing volatility.
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